Navy Midshipmen 2023 College Football Preview
June 23, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 7-5
The Coach Ken era came to an end after Navy sputtered to their 3rd consecutive losing season (11-23 L3Y). They managed to pull a pair of yuuuge upsets along the way (at East Carolina, at UCF) and almost took down mighty Notre Dame (L 35-32), but the season finale 2OT loss to Army was a killer. There were other close calls to speak of (Air Force, SMU, Cincy) but it’s hard to sugarcoat a four-win season.
Navy Midshipmen 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Midshipmen did a good job on the ground as per usual LY (241 YPG, #4 FBS) but it was too much of a grind to do enough damage (4.1 YPC, #77). The Middies still plan on using the triple option this year but there will be significantly more use of the THROW GAME. Before you say, “No, not that!”, it appears as tho Navy may have a QB with the ability to be somewhat effective thru the air. Teddy Gleaton impressed coaches in the spring and he’s the likely choice to start the season under center. Leading rusher Daba Fofana is back for duty (819, 6 TD LY) and you know they’ll have more than enough doods to run the ball. Don’t sleep on converted CB Fabian France who could be the dangerous weapon they’ve been missing in recent seasons. #1 WR Jayden Umbarger is also back in the mix (265, 16.6, 2 TD). We expect better play up front with four starters retained from the 2022 team.
DEFENSE
Yes, guy.
Navy brings back nine starters on this side of the football and recall that this defense allowed a mere 89 (!) YPG on the ground LY (#3 FBS; Georgia, James Madison). All three starters return up front and the LB group has a decent amount of experience. The biggest challenge facing the front seven will be trying to replace the production of 1st Team AAC LB John Marshall who led the team in tackles (96) and sacks (11.5) in 2022. All four starters return for duty on the back end but note that Navy was horrible vs the pass LY (#124 pass efficiency D). The coaches seem optimistic about the DB play given what they saw during the spring but color us skeptical for now.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Punter Riley Riethman is back in action (43.8, 38.3 net LY) but they’ll need to find a new PK.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Navy will participate in the college football season opener in Ireland when they battle Notre Dame (Aug 26). They’ve only got four true road games to deal with and they miss both Tulane and UTSA.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Charlotte (Oct 14)
This contest falls after back-to-back home games and it precedes the rivalry date with Air Force. This doesn’t appear to be a great spot to lay points with the road favorite.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 23
Over 5.5 -170
Under 5.5 +140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
They’ll almost certainly start 1-2 (Notre Dame, at Memphis) but they’ve got a very reasonable stretch after that until late November where they can rack up some wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Navy won an impossible 14 consecutive games vs Army from 2002-2015. The “TIDE” has swung the other way recently with Army having won three of the last five match-ups.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Former DC Brian Newberry takes over the head coaching reins in Annapolis and he’ll try and get the ship moving in the right direction. The defense can’t possibly be as stingy as they were last season but they’ll still be one of the stronger stop units in the AAC. We’ll call for Navy to break their three-year losing skid and make it to a bowl game in 2023. ANCHORS AWEIGH!