NC State Wolfpack 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – NC State Wolfpack 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 9-4

ATS – 5-8

It was a frustrating start to the campaign as the Pack lost a close game at South Carolina in which they outgained their opponent by an astounding 504-246 margin (L 35-28). They get full marks for rebounding nicely and rattling off six straight wins before getting smoked at Notre Dame. The loss to Clemson the next week put the nail in the coffin of their ACC title hopes, but they kept battling once again with a victory over arch-rival North Carolina and a Sun Bowl whoooooping of Arizona St (52-31).

What should NC State fans expect in 2018?

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Atlantic Division – Tied #5

ACC – Tied #10

NC State Wolfpack 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Pack boast one of the best signal-callers in the conference in senior Ryan Finley who threw for over 3,500 yards last season whilst completing 65% of his passes and throwing just 6 INTs in 479 (!) attempts. Finley gets to go to work with one of the best receiving groups in the ACC. The top-three returning WRs combined for over 2,300 yards and 11 TDs in 2017. That trio includes 1st Team ACC honoree Kelvin Harmon who had a 1,000-yard campaign. The Wolfpack will be without 1,000-yard RB Nykeim Hines who is off to the NFL (Colts) as well as their excellent SLASH RB/WR Jaylen Samuels (400+ yards rushing, 70+ receptions in 2017). They should be able to cobble together a decent running back group but it remains to be seen if there is a true #1 banger on board. The offensive line returns three starters but will be without AA RT Will Richardson who is off to the NFL (Jags).

NC State scored an impressive 32.2 PPG last year (#4 ACC) and we forecast a similar placing this year and some potentially big numbers from Finley.

DEFENSE

RUH ROH.

It seems impossible, but the Wolfpack are INDEED going to be without FOUR NFL draft picks on the DL this year. NC State can thank the Broncos, Giants, Chargers, and 49ers for the unfortunate resource depletion. It’s really difficult to know what to expect from DL and LB groups that do return a single starter.

The secondary should be fine with 3/4 returning starters including a pair of experienced safeties, but how well will the back end of the defense hold up without the monsters up front? The Wolfpack has allowed 25.2, 22.8, 25.8 and 27.0 PPG over the past four years. Our ACC SUPERCOMPUTER MODELS call for them to allow 30 PPG for the first time since 2013 (30.2).

SPECIAL TEAMS

Can a dedicated MEGALOCKS reader please send NC State a decent FG kicker. We will pay the shipping costs. Thanks in advance. The Pack are also in need of new return men after the departure of the dangerous duo of Nyheim Hines and Jaylen Samuels. There could be trouble on the horizon with this unit, yo.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s favorable in our estimation. The non-conference docket is tricky but not impossible. James Madison and Georgia St should be wins (?) but the home date with West Virginia and road game with WE ARE MARSHALL are going to be tough. They avoid Miami out of the Coastal Division and play just one (!!) road game before October 20. Yup, that’s an actual fact.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at WE ARE MARSHALL (September 22). This match-up pops up after a date with the powerful West Virginia Mountaineers and before conference play starts (Virginia). Most importantly, Marshall should be GEEKED UP to try and take down an ACC foe.

Season Win Total

Over 7.5 +110

Under 7.5 -130

MEGALOCKS says:

Neutral view for now. The defense might be sketchy but the schedule isn’t bad and they have one of the best QBs in the conference.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

North Carolina State is a founding member of the ACC and have won seven conference championships, the last of which came in 1979. Our pal LOU HOLTZ led the Pack to one of those titles back in 1973.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the WOLFPACK a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.

NC State inhabits a nasty ACC Atlantic Division that demands you bring your “A” game every week. They should be able to score on just about everyone but the defense has us concerned. The drop-off in special teams play may be significant. HC Dave Doeren has done a decent job with the Pack so far (34-30) but has not managed to bag a 10-win season as of yet. This does not seem like the time he gets it done.

DOUBLE D is 31-32-1 vs the point spread during his tenure in Raleigh. This has the makings of a team that will play in some exciting games but fail to meet market expectations more often than not. Tread lightly when building your weekly cards.

Want more NC State football ?

WEBSITE

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FORUM

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NEWS

http://www.backingthepack.com/nc-state-football

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/nc-state/