Nebraska Cornhuskers 2016 NCAA Football Preview
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
Big 10 Conference – West Division
2015 Record – 6-7
ATS – 5-7-1
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
West Division – #2
Conference – #4
2015 Recap
Nebraska seemingly invented new ways to lose close games in 2015 – or at least set a new bar for number of games lost on the last play of the game – four to be exact. Now the #HotTake would be to say that they were close to being a 10 or 11-win team – but the reality is they turned the ball over way too many times (#117th in turnover margin at -12) and took way too many penalties (#105 NCAA in # of penalties per game). Did we mention their pass defense was terrible? Lots to improve on in 2016. They did finish strongly beating UCLA in their bowl game while rushing for over 300 yards.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Tommy Armstrong gets one more shot this season to start for the Huskers. We feel that he has been a bit underappreciated – yes he makes mistakes (16 INT last season) – but he threw for 22 TDs last season and ran for another 7. In 2014 those numbers were 22 and 6 respectively. With one of the best receiving corps in the Big 10 he should have a similar season. Our biggest concern is with the offensive line. They return one of the most inexperienced units in the NCAA and even if they WANT to run the ball more this season – the question is whether or not they will be able to do that – especially against the tougher run Big 10 run defenses on their schedule. Armstrong’s mobility will help but the offense will depend largely on how the big boys gel up front.
DEFENSE
Last season Nebraska’s defense was brutal defending the pass (121st NCAA in passing yards allowed; 25 TDs) and while their run defense was ranked #9th in the NCAA – they were not even ranked in the top 30 in yards per carry allowed. MEGALOCKS BIG 10 INSIDERS advised us that this is now 6 straight seasons where the Huskers have performed worse in defensive yards allowed per game. 272 in 2009 – followed by 307,351,361,371,384, and 400 in 2015.
The defensive line looks like big problem area. Nebraska returns zero starters to the unit and loses 4 DT from last year’s rotation. The back 7 should be better this season with 6 starters returning but it is very difficult to play good team defense when the DL is a mess. Oh, and they get Oregon in week 3.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Nebraska will play the season with heavy hearts after the tragic passing of punter Sam Foltz. PK Drew Brown hit 21-27 FG last season. The return game should be very good and we are excited to see if De’Mornay Pierson-El can make a return from a serious injury. In 2014, Pierson-El had THREE punt return TDs and averaged over 17 yards per return. We will not know his status for the season until August camp but he is a dynamic playmaker that we hope gets back to 100% health.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Nebraska won 9 games or more for SEVEN straight seasons under Bo Pelini and only had one losing season against the number. They were below .500 in Mike Riley’s first season despite winning a bowl game. There is definitely quite a bit of talent on this team but handicappers will probably be very aware of that fact.
Overall, we give the CORNHUSKERS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season. There are major question marks on the offensive and defensive lines and we are not convinced they will be able to clean up their act as far as turnovers and penalties are concerned. We are not even sure what their identity is or will be in 2016. They are going to score points this season but it feels like a transition year. Despite the fact that they lost a lot of close games in 2015 there is no magic formula to win more games the following season because you may be “due”. Until we see adequate line play on both sides of the ball we will not be looking to play on Nebraska frequently in 2016.
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Website
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Forum
http://www.huskerboard.com/index.php?/forum/1-husker-football/
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News
http://bleacherreport.com/nebraska-cornhuskers-football
http://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/nebraska-cornhuskers
https://twitter.com/HuskerFBNation (@HuskerFBNation)
https://twitter.com/HuskerExtraBC (@HuskerExtraBC) Brian Christopherson