Nebraska Cornhuskers 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 15, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 4-8
“Every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it. So that means that every single day that you see me, that’s the worst day of my life”
<Peter Gibbons, Office Space>
The Matt Rhule experience got off to a creaky start as they dropped the opener to Minnesota in gut-wrenching fashion (L 13-10) and got spanked by COACH PRIME and the Colorado Buffaloes. Things turned around quite nicely as CORN won five of their next six games and sat at 5-2. Joy in Nebraska. And then things got bad. Then worse. Then worse again. Four consecutive losses to end the season, all of them by seven points or less. That meant no bowl game and another tough pill to swallow for the Lincoln faithful.
Nebraska Cornhuskers 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Huskers couldn’t move the ball LY (313 YPG, #117 FBS) and when they did, they couldn’t stop throwing up all over themselves (31 turnovers, last FBS). We’ve got good news to report heading into 2024 as Nebraska will be rolling with a talented true freshman QB in Dylan Raiola who will be better than what CORN put on the field at QB LY (10-16 TD to INT, #129 pass efficiency) if he simply takes a knee on every snap. There isn’t a proven #1 RB on the roster but recall that both Gabe Ervin and Rahmir Johnson suffered season-ending injuries early in 2023. The brutal WR corps got a major upgrade with the additions of freak specimen Isaiah Neyor (Texas, Wyoming) and Jahmal Banks (Wake Forest), and they’ll be a nice complement to TE Thomas Fidone who’s a legit THROW GAME weapon (260, 10.4, 4 TD). We’re not as high on the offensive line as some folks (30, 33 sacks allowed L2Y) but they’re an experienced bunch with some upside. We project significant improvement from the Huskers on offense.
DEFENSE
Yes, guy.
Nebraska’s had one of the stingiest stop units in the nation LY (313 YPG, #11 total defense; 18.3 PPG, #13 scoring defense) and they’ve got several of the key contributors back for duty in 2024. The strength of the defense comes up front on the DL and that’s always something we like to see. They’re an experienced bunch with a devastating trio (Butler, Robinson, Hutmacher) that can stop the run and achieve PENETRATION. We like the LB corps quite a bit given the return of #1 tackler Isaac Gifford (6.5 TFL) and John Bullock, and our only concern on this side of the football is a secondary that loses a small handful of key contributors. They’ll be working with a new starting safety combo this year but the CB situation looks decent. Yup, CORN is gonna be tough on defense this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Nebraska ranked #93 in the Phil Steele special teams ratings LY and most of the key pieces are back in 2024. We’re not crazy about the PK situation as Tristan Alvano was erratic LY (9/15 FG) and it would help if they got a wee bit better on PR (3.0, #124).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – We LIKEY LIKEY. Nebraska has a pair of layups in non-conference play and we like their chances vs Colorado (H) in week two because REVENGE is a dish best-served COLD. The Big Ten schedule is BUTTERY SOFT as they avoid Michigan, Oregon, and Penn St.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Wisconsin (Nov 23)
Nebraska will be off their road game at USC and they’ve got their hated rivals from Iowa on deck. Also note that the Badgers have won each of the last nine meetings.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 15
Over 7.5 -130
Under 7.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
The ‘under’ on the season win total has hit 23 years in a row ** but there’s only one unwinnable game on the docket (at Ohio St) and they’ll almost certainly get off to a hot start.
** Fact check: Seems believable.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Matt Rhule is 20-10 ATS (67%) as a road underdog over his career with Temple, Baylor, and Nebraska (2-2).
Nebraska is an embarrassing 17-28-1 vs the spread (38%) as a home favorite over the L10Y.
The last time CORN won a conference title was in the previous century (1999) when they took down Texas to win the big 12.
We love the GREAT STATE of NEBRASKA!
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but this could be the season that Nebraska turns things around. Now before you get too pumped up, understand that they’ll be rolling with a true freshman QB, and it’s not like the Huskers have had a lot of success recently in terms of winning close games. The good news is that the defense looks SPICY and the schedule couldn’t get much easier. We’ll call for eight wins and a breakthrough season for CORN. Go BIG RED!