Nebraska vs Northwestern – College Football Predictions
Posted August 22, 2022
The Game
It’s finally game day, yo! Let the fun begin in DUBLIN, IRELAND!
“Liam, fetch me a Guinness. And why do both teams have bloody “Ns” on their helmets?”
CORN NATION has high hopes for the 2022 season, as even tho they posted a brutal mark of 3-9 last year, they lost all nine games by single digits. Yup, that happened. Northwestern has fallen on hard times recently as they’ve finished 3-9 in each of the last two full seasons (2019, 2021). They SHOCKED the WORLD during the 2020 plandemic season and posted a fine record of 7-2.
Who will take home the Keough-Naughton Trophy? Will the stadium be filled with scantily-clad IRISH HOTTIES? These are among the key questions that must be answered.
Let’s go!
The Details
Nebraska -13 Northwestern (50.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Nebraska -10
MEGALOCKS market consensus – Nebraska -10.9
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Nebraska 31.75 Northwestern 18.75
The Match-Up:
Nebraska offense vs Northwestern defense
Nebraska’s offense will have a different look this season given the hiring of OC Mark Whipple (Pitt) and the departure of the MERCURIAL turnover machine that was QB Adrian Martinez. We expect a balanced and more consistent attack this year but it’s unclear how good the weapons are at RB (do they have a true #1?) and in the THROW GAME (lost top WR and stud TE). New starting QB Casey Thompson (Texas) should be one of the better signal callers in the Big Ten but we don’t expect him to give Whipple the ability to chuck it around all day like Kenny Pickett did with the Panthers in 2021. Northwestern allowed an impossible 427 (!) yards on the ground during last season’s massacre at the hands of Nebraska (L 56-7) and it goes without saying that they’ll need to be much better vs the run. The Cats only return five starters on defense and we’re skeptical of the how the DL/LB groups look on paper. They have a solid CB duo but it won’t matter unless they can hold their own on 1st and 2nd down. BIG RED’s implied team total of 31.75 looks about right but it’s not fair to expect them to be firing on all cylinders whilst playing on another continent in week one.
Northwestern offense vs Nebraska defense
PATS CATS were brutal on offense LY (#116 FBS total offense, #125 scoring offense) and you can thank disgusting QB play (13-14 TD to INT, 5.8 YPA) for that horror show. They did manage to do good work on the ground LY as RB Evan Hull booked a 1,000-yard season and he’s back this year along with 2020’s #1 RB Cam Porter. Northwestern has to find a way to grind out first downs with the rushing attack and efficient short passes from QB Ryan Hilinski. It doesn’t look like a good match-up on paper as the strength of Corn’s defense is definitely up front where they made some fine transfer portal additions, and note that the team’s top-two tacklers are back at LB (Reimer, Henrich). Nebraska could be vulnerable on the back end as they have an inexperienced secondary but we don’t think Northwestern has the weapons at WR/TE to do a ton of damage. We expect Corn’s pass rush to be very good this year so too many 3rd and long situations is gonna be a problem. The good news? Northwestern has a decent OL so there’s potential to do some solid work on the ground at times.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Scott Frost has a record of 15-29 (!) over his four years as HC in Lincoln….Will his team be able to survive the recent “Puke Gate” scandal in which Frost noted that offensive lineman throw up on a regular basis during practice?…..While this is a neutral site game and not a true “road” affair, it’s worth noting that Northwestern HC Pat Fitzgerald is 37-21 ATS (64%) in the point spread role of road underdog…..Nebraska will finally have a special teams group that doesn’t want to make you stab yourself!….They’ve finally hired a special teams coach and feature a promising new PK/punter combination….Aviva Stadium houses just over 50K fans and has approximately 30 bars throughout the stadium…It appears as tho fans are well-protected from the elements in this venue but the pitch is not….As always, our WEATHER SWEETIES will keep tabs on the weather for every game in our weekly meteorological report.
Summary
The pressure is on the Huskers to get the campaign off to a good start and be reminded that Northwestern has been pretty good over the years when expectations are low. The point spread is currently noticeably higher than our number and that of the market consensus we track, but Northwestern will need to be efficient on 3rd downs and get help in the turnover department to keep this one close.
We trust the Northwestern coaching staff to have the team ready for this unique opening week scenario and forecast a relatively low-scoring SNOT BUBBLER in the first half as the teams get settled in.
Conclusion
Lean – First half under 25.5 -110
Lean – Northwestern +14 (IF it gets there; unlikely but not impossible)
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.