College Football Predictions – Nevada Wolfpack 2018 NCAA Football Preview
Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 6-6
Nevada got off to a rough 1-8 start in Jay Norvell’s first year as HC but they started to play better as the season progressed. Knocking the hated Rebels out of bowl contention by winning the Fremont Cannon had to feel pretty good. Speaking of the Rebels, they lost to Howard (!) as 45-point favorites. Nevada said, “Hold My Beer” and lost to something called Idaho St as 30-point chalk.
Let’s see if the Wolfpack are well positioned to show improvement in Norvell’s second year.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – Tied #3
Mountain West – Tied #9
Nevada Wolfpack 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Air Raid offense started to hum over the 2nd half of the season as QB Ty Gangi took hold of the QB duties. The senior comes back after throwing 25 TD passes and tallying the 3rd most rushing yards on the team (180, 4 TD). Gangi will be surrounded with fine weapons including two of their top-three WRs from last season (McLane Mannix – 2nd Team MW, Brenden O’Leary-Orange – 15.8 YPR) and essentially the entire RB corps. The OL did a fine job in pass protection as they allowed just 16 sacks in well over 400 (!) attempts. They lose a 2nd round NFL draft pick on the OL (Austin Corbett – Cleveland) but do return 3/5 starters including senior C Sean Krepsz. If the big boys can pick up where they left off last season the Pack will be dangerous on offense. In any event, they should score over 30 PPG for the first time since 2012 (37.8).
DEFENSE
Ya, it was pretty much a hot mess. Nevada finished last year ranked #119 in total defense and they were equally horrible vs the run (#109) and the pass (#121 pass efficiency D). The Pack should be better in the 2nd season under new DC Jeff Casteel who runs the relatively uncommon 3-3-5 configuration. It appears that they have added beef and depth on the DL, and they return some nice pieces in LB Malik Reed (1st Team MW honoree; 8 sacks LY) and S Dameon Baber (2nd Team MW). The bad news is that they will have a hard time replacing their excellent LB Austin Paulhus who led the team with 112 tackles and 14.5 (!) TFL in 2017. They are also inexperienced at CB.
There is definitely room for improvement. If they can get the PPG closer to 30 (33.9 LY) it feels like they will have a pretty good season. <grabs popcorn>
SPECIAL TEAMS
Nevada did a poor job punting last season (34.4 net – #122 FBS) and were a disaster on kickoff returns (16.7 – #128 FBS). PK Spencer Pettit was just 1/3 on FG from 40+ yards. Improvement is sorely needed.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Very nice. The out of conference schedule of Portland St, Vanderbilt, Oregon St and Toledo is not easy, but it’s not a killer. All of their conference road games are winnable although they did go winless away from home last year.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Toledo (September 22). The Rockets beat Nevada 37-24 in Reno last year and this game pops up the week before conference play starts (at Air Force).
Season Win Total
Over 6 +115
Under 6 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. They have a shot in every game and the end of the schedule provides a bailout plan should they struggle early.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Nevada and UNLV will face each other November 24th in another battle for the Fremont Cannon. The trophy is a replica of the cannon that explorer John C Fremont had with him on an expedition to Nevada in the 1800s. It is the heaviest trophy in college football. Fire up that tidbit at your next LAME COMPANY BARBECUE.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WOLFPACK a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
There is some nice upside in Reno. The offense should be really tough to stop and the defense has nowhere to go but up. We aren’t crazy about the look of the special teams and Mike Norvell is still an unproven commodity as HC. Having said all of that, the schedule is exactly the tonic this team needs to improve, and we expect to see them bowling.
Want more Nevada football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.nevadawolfpack.com/sports/m-footbl/unv-m-footbl-body.html
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NEWS
http://www.rgj.com/sports/wolf-pack/
http://bleacherreport.com/nevada-wolfpack-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/nevada-wolf-pack
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