College Football Predictions – Nevada Wolfpack 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 7-6
Year two of the Jay Norvell era has to be considered a success as Nevada notched their first winning season since going 7-6 in 2015. They even capped off the year with an Arizona Bowl win over Arkansas St despite being dramatically outgained (499-285) in the contest. The Pack actually won five of their last six games but the solitary blemish was an upset at the hands of their hated rivals from Las Vegas.
Let’s dig in and see if Nevada has a shot to contend for a division crown.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
Mountain West – #7
Nevada Wolfpack 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Wolfpack scored 30+ PPG (31.1) for the first time since 2012 (37.8) and should be potent again this year. They need to break in a new QB but the system they run should be suitable for a new starter to take the reins and put up good numbers, and don’t forget that last year’s #1 QB Ty Gangi threw 13 INTs to go along with his 3,300 yards. It appears to be a two-horse race for the starting QB gig between last year’s back-up Christian Solano and former Florida St Seminole Malik Henry. We’ll have to wait until fall camp to see how the battle will shake out. Whomever starts under center will enjoy a fine set of receiving targets that returns everyone at WR other than McLane Mannix who took his talents to Texas Tech.
Nevada has one of the best RB groups in the Mountain West and they are very deep at the position. RB Toa Taua is on the ALL-MEGALOCKS squad as he is an absolute NIGHTMARE to try and tackle (5-8, 220) and good luck stopping him if he gets a head of steam. The offensive line was exceptional in pass protection (17 sacks allowed) LY and good enough from a run-blocking perspective. Only a pair of starters are back up front so keep an eye on how they perform in the first month of the season.
We anticipate a similar level of production as what was achieved last year (31.1 PPG, 431 YPG).
DEFENSE
Nevada made excellent strides on defense a season ago and allowed a lot fewer points and yards than they did in 2017. They also got pressure on the QB and bagged an impressive 35 sacks (#2 Mountain West). The Pack may have a tough time living up to those standards this year as they only bring back five starters and lose five of their top-seven tacklers.
We think the run defense will be fine as they return a pair of starters in both the DL and LB groups. The DL has good size and LB Gabe Sewell led the team in tackles a season ago. They may not be able to get the same amount of PENETRATION given that the departed Malik Reed and Korey Rush combined for 14 sacks in 2018. Another worry? The pass defense wasn’t great LY as they allowed 246 YPG through the air (#9 MW) and only picked off 11 passes.
We have faith in DC Jeff Casteel but predict a slight downward move in points allowed (26.9 LY) to something close to 30 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This group looks pretty good. They need to find a new PK but P Quinton Conaway did a good job last season and PR Romeo Doubs took one to the HOUSE in 2018.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s going to be tough to get off to a good start with a home opener vs Purdue followed by a road trip to Oregon. Things settle down a bit but then they have four (!) tough road dates in a six-week span (Utah St, Wyoming, San Diego St, Fresno St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at San Diego St (November 9)
This will be their third road game in four weeks and the Aztecs will be coming off a bye.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -130
Under 6 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
That looks like a fair number. The schedule is tough but would side with the ‘over’ at that price if we had to decide. Taking a pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Fremont Cannon was introduced as the Nevada vs UNLV rivalry trophy in 1970 by Bill Ireland who attended Nevada and was the Rebels first football coach. Nevada currently maintains a 27–17 lead in the battle for the Fremont Cannon.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
This season should tell us a lot about what Jay Norvell has going on in Reno. They booked an impressive eight-win campaign last year but have questions on both sides of the ball this season. The schedule is also demanding. Nevada is only 3-9 in twelve road games over the last two years and they play both of their main rivals in the division (Utah St, Fresno St) away from home. Apologies to Hawaii.
Nevada has a 13-12 ATS mark under the watch of HC Norvell and we recommend picking your spots with the Wolfpack in 2019. We should have a better idea of what they are all about once we head into October.
Want more Nevada football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.nevadawolfpack.com/sports/m-footbl/unv-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/nevada/Board/The-Sports-Forum-102569/
NEWS
http://www.rgj.com/sports/wolf-pack/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2440/nevada-wolf-pack
http://bleacherreport.com/nevada-wolfpack-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/nevada-wolf-pack
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