New Mexico Bowl – North Texas vs Utah St
The Game
Yes, guy.
This is one of the most underrated match-ups of the bowl season as Utah St takes on North Texas in the New Mexico Bowl. The Aggies and Mean Green have combined for 19 (!) wins so far this year and have had fine seasons despite missing out on their respective conference championship games.
The Details
Utah St -9 North Texas (66.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Utah St -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Utah St 37.75 North Texas 28.75
The Match-Up:
Utah St offense vs North Texas defense
QB Jordan Love turned into a star this season leading one of the most potent offenses in college football (#3 FBS in scoring offense – 47 PPG). Love finished the regular season with a 66% completion rate and excellent 28-5 TD to INT ratio. The Aggies move fast on offense and Love distributes the ball well making it nearly impossible to focus in on any particular target. They have a great 1-2 combo at RB with Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright (1,736, 22 TD combined) and that makes them a very difficult offense to defend. Overall, Utah St displayed excellent balance scoring 34 TDs rushing and 28 passing. The Mean Green have an under-the-radar stop unit that improved by 13 (!) PPG this year. North Texas is ranked #15 (!) in rush defense and #23 in pass efficiency defense. They have given up a lot of yards through the air but have bagged 17 INTs (T5 FBS). It will be interesting to see if the Mean Green can force Love into a mistake or two. Those are rare. One interesting tidbit dug up by our MOUNTAIN WEST DEEP INSIDERS. Utah St averaged 608 yards per game at 7.83 (!) yards per play at home. On the road? Just 377 yards per game at 5.71 yards a pop.
North Texas offense vs Utah St defense
QB Mason Fine had another great season throwing for over 3,700 yards (65%) with a stellar 27-5 TD to INT mark. FIVE interceptions in 457 attempts. Utah St has tallied 18 (!) INT which ranks them T1 in the FBS. Can Utah St force Fine into a mistake or two? <sounds familiar> North Texas has a 1,000-yard WR in Rico Bussey Jr and a RB that is almost certain to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark in this game (DeAndre Torrey 942, 14 TD). The Aggies have given up a lot of yards this season and have relied on their 3rd down defense and uncanny ability to force turnovers (and SCORE on defense). Utah St is ranked #44 vs the run and #26 in pass efficiency defense and have recorded 30 sacks (#3 Mountain West). The Aggies yielded over 500 yards in each of their final two games and we expect North Texas to be able to move the ball effectively in this contest.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Utah St will be playing in this game with an interim head coach as Matt Wells is off to Texas Tech….North Texas was thrilled to hear that their HC Seth Littrell is staying put in Denton to continue building this program…..Amaze your BRAZENLY TATTOOED HUNTING BUDDY with this gem…..North Texas won 9 games and did not beat a single bowl team……Utah St? They were 0-2 vs teams in the Sagarin Top-30 (Boise St, Michigan St)…….These two teams have combined for a +19 turnover margin (Utah St +11, North Texas +8)…..North Texas lost their three games by a combined 13 points.
Summary
North Texas has more than enough talent to make this a game and the motivational edge is significant. Their head coach has committed to the program and is on record saying that there is “unfinished business” in terms of winning their bowl game. They get to play a ranked team and become the FIRST North Texas team to bag 10 wins if you don’t count the 1977 season in which they ended up 9-2 (later changed to 10-1 by the NCAA due to a forfeit). How is that for a potentially useless trivia nugget?
In any event, Utah St has been a much better team at home this season and it’s hard to imagine them getting too jacked up for this contest. They missed out on a division title. They lost their head coach. They already have 10 wins. We will take a shot with the tasty points.
Conclusion
Official play: North Texas +9 -106 (Note – line has moved to +8.5/+8 since posted on Dec 9)