College Football Predictions – New Mexico Lobos 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 4-8
Yikes.
The Lobos started off the season 3-2 and looked to be ready to make trouble for conference foes, but the wheels fell off in epic fashion as they lost the final seven games of the campaign. The QB situation was a mess, and that was a main contributor to the (-16) (!) turnover margin (#127 FBS) that is just impossible to overcome.
The Lobos won 16 games over the previous two seasons and hope to get back to winning ways in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – #6
Mountain West – #8
New Mexico Lobos 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
New Mexico will move away from the devastating (at times) option attack to a run-based spread system this season under the watch of new OC Calvin Magee (Arizona co-OC). This is one of the more interesting starting QB battles to watch as they have a couple of guys that got action last year (Tevaka Tuioti, Coltin Gerhart) and a JC transfer with a bit of Tennessee Vols pedigree (Sheriron Jones). They have a lot of speed at WR and some experience, but it remains to be seen how they will produce in the new offense. Leading rusher Tyrone Owens is back in the mix but they lose a lot of depth from last year’s RB corps. The offensive line returns just a pair of starters, but G Aaron Jenkins is an excellent piece.
New Mexico was ranked just #99 in total offense last year and managed a paltry 20.7 points per game after blowing up for 36.7 (!) in 2016. We expect growing pains but increased production from the offense.
DEFENSE
The Lobos’ defense was consistently put in harm’s way a lot last season due to the “offensive” offensive display (turnovers, ineffectiveness) yet still managed to hold opponents to under 400 yards per game. This season they bring back 6 starters and have talent at all three levels. DE Cody Baker returns to a line that did a fine job against the run last year, Alex Hart is an experienced MLB and they have two really strong senior CBs that combined for 21 (!) PBUs in 2017. The group doesn’t look overwhelming on paper but they will probably have another decent run.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Danger! Danger!
The Lobos lose a fantastic kicking duo in PK Jason Sanders (NFL – Dolphins) and P Coery Bojorquez (42.0 net LY). They bring back dangerous KR Elijah Lilly but need to do something better than “horrible” on punt returns (3.41 yards per return – #124 FBS). There could be problems.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s back-end loaded for sure. They have a BODY BAG SPECIAL with Wisconsin in week two, but other than that game, the Lobos have a shot in every one. The last six games look pretty nasty.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Wisconsin (September 8). <see above>. They would be quite happy to lose 63-0 and leave town as quickly as possible. Rivalry game with New Mexico St on deck.
Season Win Total
Over 4 -105
Under 4 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. Incarnate Word and Liberty should both be wins. You can do the math after that.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Rio Grande Rivalry with New Mexico St dates back to 1894. That’s eighteen years before New Mexico achieved statehood.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the LOBOS a 4.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Below Average) this season.
We were originally a bit more negative on their prospects but have come around after doing some additional work. The offense may take a while to gel given the new system in place, but there is some talent to work with at QB, and they will benefit from being more balanced in their approach. The defense has enough good players to make us think they can hold serve.
HC Bob Davie has a 36-38 (48.6%) record vs the point spread with the Lobos and we forecast another season around .500. Not a complete toss when building your weekly cards.
Want more New Mexico Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.golobos.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
http://www.scout.com/college/new-mexico/forums/2466-the-red-menace-zone
http://thelobolair.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=6
NEWS
https://www.mwcconnection.com/new-mexico-lobos-football
http://www.abqjournal.com/category/sports/unm-lobos
http://bleacherreport.com/new-mexico-lobos-football
https://www.newscastic.com/new-mexico/football/
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/new-mexico-lobos
Hashtag – #GoLobos
Accounts to follow