College Football Predictions – New Mexico Lobos 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 4-8
“Dive! Dive!” <Lieutenant Ken White> <‘Submarine Captain’> <1951>
The Lobos managed to get off to a decent start winning three of their first five games and then proceeded to DIVE to the depths of the Mountain West losing their last seven games in a row. There were lots of injuries and a new system to be learned on offense, but it just wasn’t pretty.
Let’s see if better things are on the horizon for the Lobos.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – #6
Mountain West – #11
New Mexico Lobos 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The QB room was RIDDLED with injuries a season ago and that made it virtually impossible to get the new offensive attack rolling as planned. Tevaka Tuioti was OFY after only a handful of games but seemed to look the part of a decent Mountain West QB. Sheriron Jones got the majority of the snaps last year and threw 13 TDs whilst finishing #2 on the team in rushing (286). Jones threw too many INTs (12) and that makes us think Tuioti will emerge as the #1 QB after fall camp.
The RB group is a bit worrisome as leading rusher Tyrone Owens departs and it’s unclear how the RB rotation will play out. The WR and TE units look good enough to support a decent THROW GAME but the QB play has to be more consistent. The offensive line lacks depth but does have a good-looking starting five that has nice size and four returning starters.
We are excited about the hire of new OC Joe Dailey who comes from the Liberty Flames. New Mexico averaged 26.6 PPG LY and we forecast a mild increase to around 30 PPG in 2019.
DEFENSE
Oh, boy. This might be messy.
Last year the Lobos posted their worst scoring defense (36.2 PPG) since the hideous 2013 group that allowed 42.8 PPG. They displayed a particularly SOFT UNDERBELLY vs the run allowing 217 YPG (#11 MW). This year they only return a pair of starters, and while some may consider that a good thing, we would prefer to see more experience on board. Maybe the influx of JC transfers will help? In any event, the DL should be the best layer of the stop unit as they have some girth and a pair of returning starters. MLB Alex Hart will be welcomed back after missing most of last year due to injury (#3 tackler 2017) but OH MAMA, that secondary. Their pass defense hasn’t been that bad over the last few years but they are starting from scratch. New DC Jordan Peterson will have to hope that the Lobos can get some pressure on the QB or else there could some long Saturdays ahead. <grabs popcorn>
It seems reasonable to expect (at best) a similar overall level of performance from the defense in 2019.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game should be one of the best in the conference as they feature a really effective punter in Tyson Dyer (39.2 net LY) and a reliable PK in Andrew Shelley who hit 7/8 FGs LY including 3/3 from 40+ yards. Ace PR Marcus Hayes decided to transfer and that is a big hole to fill.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They need to get off to a fast start. Five of their first six games are winnable (!) but then things take an unfortunate turn to NASTY TOWN.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at San Jose St (October 4)
This will be the Lobos third road test in four weeks and they fly back out west after playing Liberty in Lynchburg, VA.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 +115
Under 4.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the ‘under’. This has the look of a team that might be really bad, yo.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Legendary head coach MARV LEVY (yes, THAT Marv Levy) led the Lobos to back-to-back 7-3 seasons in the late 1950s before moving on to coach at Cal. He later went to the NFL where he had a Hall of Fame career that included four consecutive Super Bowl appearances with the Buffalo Bills.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
One of these days we’ll go on a week-long tirade about how some teams have a good thing going and then say, “Hey, let’s try something different so we can stink! That will be awesome.” New Mexico has won 36 games over the past ten years and 16 of those came in a two year period (2015-2016) when they had an unstoppable and unique rushing attack. Now they are moving towards something “innovative” called the “spread” offense and will try to out-execute and “out-talent” the opposition. COOL STORY, BRO. Good luck with that.
We want the Lobos to succeed, it just seems like a tall order this year with the uncertainty at QB and the sure-to-be porous defense. New Mexico has posted back-to-back 4-8 seasons vs the point spread. They might show improvement vs the number this year but will be a STAY AWAY for us in most instances when building our weekly card.
Hey, it doesn’t mean we can’t cheer for them. Go Lobos!
Want more New Mexico Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.golobos.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/new-mexico/Board/The-Red-Menace-Zone-103704/
NEWS
https://www.mwcconnection.com/new-mexico-lobos-football
http://www.abqjournal.com/category/sports/unm-lobos
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/167/new-mexico-lobos
http://bleacherreport.com/new-mexico-lobos-football
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/new-mexico-lobos
Hashtag – #GoLobos
Accounts to follow