College Football Predictions – New Mexico Lobos 2020 College Football Preview
August 10, 2020
OCTOBER 2020 – Schedule notes updated.
2019 Recap
Record – 2-10
ATS – 3-9
Oh boy.
The Lobos booked another disappointing campaign and took at turn to TURD TOWN after starting the season at 2-1 with wins over Sam Houston St and New Mexico St. They finished the year on a nine-game (!) losing streak and will enter the 2020 season with a new head coach. New Mexico has an 8-28 record over the past three years after playing some exciting (and winning) football under the tutelage of former HC Bob Davie.
Can Danny Gonzales get the ship turned around in the right direction?
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – #6
Mountain West – #12
New Mexico Lobos 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Lobos managed to run the ball effectively last year (#3 MW) but couldn’t do anything in the THROW GAME in order to balance things out. The QB play was horrendous overall LY (#114 FBS passing efficiency) but note that four QBs attempted 25+ passes due to injuries and general incompetence. The new coaching staff is implementing a new “modern” offense that hopes to take advantage of the talents of oft-injured QB Tevaka Tuioti (7-6 TD to INT LY, 262 rush yards LY). The Lobos lose leading rusher RB Ahmari Davis (832, 7 TD) but are hopeful that Bryson Carroll can produce like a #1 back in this offense. The depth at the position is sketchy. The recently dull THROW GAME will benefit from the return of their top two pass catchers in WR Jordan Kress (530, 18.9, 6 TD) and TE Marcus Williams (28, 16.5, 1 TD). The offensive line could be a problem area with return of just two starters and a new offensive system being implemented in 2020. The good news is that one of big men back for battle is their fine senior center Kyle Stapley.
The Lobos were ranked #7 in the MW in total offense a season ago and we think that is the highwater mark for 2020. Expect a slight decrease in production due to questionable QB play.
DEFENSE
The sound you hear is PROJECTILE VOMIT from Lobos’ fans that had to endure a horrid display of defense last year. New Mexico was last in the Mountain West in scoring defense (37.2), 2nd last in the entire country in total defense, and last in the nation in pass defense (321 YPG). There are only four starters returning to the mix and the DL and LB corps are looking at a total reload. The Lobos add ROCKY LONG at DC and that is a fantastic hire according to our DEEP MOUNTAIN WEST INSIDERS. It’s going to take a few years but we can see these guys getting into the top-half of the conference stats in total defense in relatively short order. As far as this year goes, the talent level is very suspect across the board, although there’s at least some starting experience returning in the secondary.
This will still be one of the worst defenses in the Mountain West and it seems to us like 2021 will be the year when we see some real improvement.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy. Finally some good news. PK Andrew Shelley connected on 12/16 FG attempts LY and punter Tyson Dyer is one on the best in the Mountain West. The Lobos were decent on KRs last year (#20 FBS) and used several different players in that role.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Lobos will face San Jose St (H), at Hawaii (A), and Nevada (H) from the West division. They don’t get the quasi-layup with New Mexico St as that program has packed it in for 2020.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing scary noted.
Season Win Total
TBD
MEGALOCKS says:
TBD
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Former head coach (and now DC) Rocky Long did what now seems impossible. He led the Lobos to a stretch of five bowl games in six season from 2002-2007. Their only victory during that time horizon was a 23-CACK win over Nevada in the New Mexico Bowl.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
It doesn’t take a genius to figure this will be another long season for the Lobos. There are just too many question marks on both sides of the football. We like the hire of Gonzales as head coach and REALLY like the fact that Rocky Long is back in town. They’ll struggle to win more than a game or two but could definitely SHOCK the WORLD at some point with a big upset along the way. Next year will be better.
#Go Lobos!
Want more New Mexico Football ?
WEBSITE
https://golobos.com/sports/football/
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/new-mexico/Board/The-Red-Menace-Zone-103704/
NEWS
https://www.mwcconnection.com/new-mexico-lobos-football
http://www.abqjournal.com/category/sports/unm-lobos
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/167/new-mexico-lobos
Hashtag – #GoLobos
Accounts to follow