New Mexico Lobos 2023 College Football Preview
June 27, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 2-10
ATS – 3-8-1
The Lobos sputtered to their sixth consecutive TURD of campaign and they didn’t look good doing it. There was a spark of hope early on when they beat UTEP and moved to 2-1 but New Mexico proceeded to lose each of their final nine games and finished at 2-10. The last time these guys won more than three games in a season was back in 2016. Yikes.
Is there any hope for better things in 2023?
New Mexico Lobos 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
If you thought that the last eight or nine Disney movies were horrible ** that’s nothing compared to what the New Mexico offense has looked like over the L2Y. They’ve ranked #130 in scoring offense in each of the last two years (13.1, 12.2 PPG) and recall that they scored 10 points or less in each of their last six games of 2022. The Lobos picked up a solid transfer QB from UAB in Dylan Hopkins (career 31-16 TD to INT) and his former OC (Bryant Vincent) also came over to New Mexico. The RB room appears void of a #1 weapon but they retain LY’s #2 rusher in Christian Washington and add an intriguing transfer in Andrew Henry. Fun fact incoming. The Lobos don’t bring back anyone who had more than 300 receiving yards or a single dood that averaged 10 yards per reception last year. Four starters return up front and they have decent size, so at least that’s a plus. Anyone with a brain knows that they’ll be technically “improved” on offense in 2023, but they still boast one of the worst offenses in college football.
** a billion dollars in estimated box office losses, but who’s counting
DEFENSE
Our prediction for the defense can be summed up by our good friend, Clubber Lang. “Pain”. Ace DC Rocky Long is off to Syracuse, and make no mistake, the Lobos’ defense was great LY (#47 FBS total defense) when you consider how much time they spent on the field. It just got worse. New Mexico lost their top-nine (!!) tacklers from a season ago, and no matter how you cut it, that’s not good. On a positive note, Gabriel Lopez appears to be a good addition up front (Wash St), the LBs have some experience, and there are several talented transfers vying for spots in the secondary. It’s extremely difficult to know how the Lobos will perform on defense, but it’s almost certainly a range between “awful” and “average”. Stay tuned.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game is in good shape with the return of 2nd Team MW honoree punter Aaron Rodriguez (40.3 net, Lobos #35 net punting LY) and PK Luke Drzewiecki (10-14, 6-6 XP). Also recall that KR Christian Washington is capable of going YARD (26.7, TD LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – As bad as the outlook for New Mexico might be, they’ve got three (!) winnable contests in non-conference action (Tennessee Tech, New Mexico St, at UMass). The bad news is that they have to face Boise St and Fresno St, and both of those games are ON THE HIGHWAY.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UMass (Sept 23)
This is a really tough spot for the Lobos to navigate as it comes after the rivalry game with New Mexico St and right before Mountain West play begins.
Season Win Total
Market Consensus June 27
Over 3.5 -110
Under 3.5 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
That’s a low bar to meet but it’s gonna be tough to win two Mountain West games. That’s probably what they’ll need to hit the ‘over’.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The great PHIL STEELE points out that New Mexico hasn’t blocked a punt in 14 years.
Don’t judge us, but we wouldn’t mind taking the “Breaking Bad” Tour in Albuquerque next time we’re in the area.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
The term “bloodbath” is often misused, but it could be an accurate assessment on this occasion. They have a legitimate QB which definitely helps the situation, but we just don’t see them stacking up well vs the majority of their opponents. We hope we’re wrong, but we’ll call for three wins and a coaching change before the end of the year. In any event, go Lobos!