New Mexico Lobos 2024 College Football Preview
Posted June 13, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 6-6
It was a season that made people long for the good old days under Bob Davie. Sure, he was uncomfortably fond of interns **. Sure, you’d take a photo with him at media day and your wallet went missing ^^. But hey, at least New Mexico had a pair of really good seasons and made a couple of bowl games. Last season marked the 7th consecutive losing campaign for the Lobos and they’ll turn to veteran HC Bronco Mendenhall and hope for better things to come.
** allegedly
^^ also, allegedly
New Mexico Lobos 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
For the record, the Lobos did some damage on the ground LY (193 YPG, #18 FBS), but with only three returning starters (!) on this side of the football and a new HC, we’ll have to reset our expectations. This is particularly true since star RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (1,190, 17 TD LY) is no longer available. New Mexico has reason for optimism with sophomore dual-threat QB Devon Dampier set to take the controls and he did fine work in limited action LY (6-0 TD to INT; 328 rush, 4 TD). The Lobos will have a good 1-2 punch at RB with the return of #2 RB Andrew Henry and the addition of Iowa St (!) transfer Eli Sanders. #1 WR Caleb Medford is back for duty but we’re not sure about the quality of the other doods on the depth chart. The OL is undergoing a complete reload but they’ve got decent size and a bundle of transfers (FCS) that might be able to mold into an acceptable unit.
DEFENSE
New Mexico was brutal on defense LY (#103 run D, #128 pass efficiency D) and the hope is that Bronco Mendenhall (and new DC Nick Howell) can have a positive influence on their performance. Six starters and four of their top-six tacklers are back in the mix so there’s reason to believe this isn’t a complete lost cause. The DL is the strength of the defense as all three starters return and they added a few decent pieces via transfer including De’Jon Benton (USC). The bad news is that they’re undersized up front and recall that the Lobos only generated 15 sacks LY (#129) and they don’t appear to have an elite pass rusher in the mix. The LB corps and secondary look a bit sketchy and they didn’t add a lot of proven talent thru the transfer portal.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Lobos were a HIDEOUS #129 in the Phil Steele special teams rankings LY but they’ve got all the key pieces back this season including ace punter Aaron Rodriguez (2nd team MW LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule contains a pair of automatic losses (at Arizona, at Auburn) but they’ve got a pair of winnable games (at New Mexico St, Montana St) as well. They miss Boise St in conference action which is a bonus.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing overly-spooky to tell you about.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 13
Over 2.5 +115
Under 2.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
New Mexico will be the underdog in the almost all of their games (Montana St is a good FCS team) but the Lobos appear capable of hitting the ‘over’. Plus money makes it tempting. We’ll let you know if this makes our season win total DANCE CARD.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment list.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
New Mexico is an impossible 44-71-2 (38%) vs the spread over the L10Y. They’re 6-19-1 ATS as a home favorite over that time horizon but we probably won’t have to worry too much about that this season.
The Lobos haven’t won a conference title since 1964 when they shared the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) honors with, wait for it, the UTAH UTES. Trivia nugget, yo.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It’s gonna be a struggle for the Lobos but they’re capable of bagging a small handful of wins. Their dual-threat QB has promise, they’ve got a massive upgrade in the coaching department, and it’s not like the Mountain West is full of killers. We’ll call for three or four wins and look forward to better times in 2025!