New Mexico St Aggies 2023 College Football Preview
June 12, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 6-5 (vs FBS)
WHOA, NELLIE!
The Aggies started 0-4 and looked ready to put in another dismal season. Not so fast, my friend! They turned that FROWN UPSIDE-DOWN and got on a legit HEEETER winning five of their final six games. New Mexico St emerged triumphant in the the Quick Lane Bowl when they squeaked past Bowling Green (W 24-19) and they finished with a mark of 7-6. Well done, men!
New Mexico St Aggies 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Aggies’ offense improved markedly once Diego Pavia took over at QB. In the final six games of the season Pavia had a sparkling 13-2 (!) TD to INT ratio and averaged 68 YPG (4 TD) on the ground. Pavia is back this season and he’ll be supported by the return of the Aggies’ top two RBs (Jamoni Jones, Star Thomas) who combined for over 900 yards and 11 TDs in 2022. The RB group will be working behind a line that returns four starters so that’s a definite positive. The THROW GAME was pretty uninspiring LY (#119 FBS) but it was better once Pavia got comfortable in his role. WR Kordell David led the team in receptions LY but he had a fairly mediocre stat line (24, 343, 14.3, 4 TD) and it remains to be seen if New Mexico St has the weapons at WR/TE needed to become a more balanced offense. Color us skeptical for now.
DEFENSE
New Mexico St had one of the more underrated stop units in the nation LY as they allowed a mere 336 YPG (#29 FBS) and ranked an impressive #26 in pass efficiency defense whilst allowing just 14 TD passes (14). It might be difficult to duplicate last season’s performance as they lose their top-two sack men and a yuuuge chunk of their starting LB group and secondary. The Aggies will attempt to reload with a small handful of talented transfers including LB Jamari Buddin (Penn St) (!), safety Keonte Glinton (Wyoming), and DT Dion Wilson (Arizona). We’re optimistic about the newcomers imported into Las Cruces and project them to perform in the same neighborhood as the 2022 defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Aggies have a fine PK in Ethan Albertson (28/36 career FGA) but they’ll need to work in a new punter.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – AGGIE NATION REJOICE. There are 13 games on the docket as is commonplace when teams have a road trip to Hawaii. With only one guaranteed massacre to endure (at Auburn) there’s no reason to believe that these guys can’t be competitive in the vast majority of their games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Hawaii (Sept 23)
This will be their 3rd consecutive road tilt and it’s sandwiched between the rivalry game with New Mexico and a conference match-up with Florida International.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 12 <wide range of prices available>
Over 5.5 -125
Under 5.5 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
It seems reasonable to think that these guys can win six games. Hey, they’re almost certainly gonna start 2-0. What could possibly go wrong?
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Who doesn’t love the Aggies’ mascot Pistol Pete? Well, it’s a little known fact outside of New Mexico that Pistol Pete is based on a real person, Frank “Pistol Pete” Eaton. Apparently, he boasted about becoming a gunfighter at the age of eight after witnessing the murder of his father. HOT TRIVIA NUGGETS SERVED UP EXTRA SPICY, YO. **
** and for Karen……GUNS !! YES !! PEW PEW PEW RAT A TAT TAT. PEW PEW.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
HC Jerry Kill did a wonderful job last year and it’ll be interesting to see how they handle the rise in class from being and independent to becoming a member of Conference USA. The good news is that the conference has lost some of its firepower and the Aggies look to be at least a mid-tier player. We project them to win six games but it’s more likely that they overachieve than crap the bed. GO AGGIES!