New Mexico St Aggies 2025 College Football Preview
Posted June 7, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 5-7
The Aggies got a sharp dose of reality last year as they fell completely off the map after a pair of fantastic seasons under former HC Jerry Kill (10-5, 7-6). New Mexico St started with a win over FCS foe SE Missouri St and then almost took down Liberty the following week. They didn’t win their next game until the middle of October (2 OT vs La Tech) and only managed to book three wins all season.
What can we expect in year two of the Tony Sanchez regime?
New Mexico St Aggies 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
There wasn’t much of a problem doing good work on the ground LY (180 YPG, #40) but they were a DUMPSTER FIRE when it came to moving the ball thru the air (#127). There are positive vibes heading into 2025 as the Aggies have a new OC in David Yost and a shiny new QB in Logan Fife who had a great season with Montana (FCS) in 2024 (63%, 14-2 TD to INT). Fife had previously spent time with Fresno St but he didn’t perform too well in limited action from 2021 to 2023 (6-9 TD to INT). The Aggies have a yuuuge hole to fill at RB after the departures of RB Seth McGowan (823, 3 TD) and Mike Washington (725, 8 TD) but they struck potential gold in the transfer portal with the addition of RB Dijon Stanley (Utah)(!) and RB Kadarius Calloway (California). New Mexico St retains their top-two WRs in TJ Pride (34 receptions LY) and PJ Johnson III (18.2) and we expect better production from the THROW GAME with Fife under center. The offensive line is a bit of a mystery as they bring back one starter and they’ll rely on transfer bodies and holdovers to plug the holes.
DEFENSE
“The horror…..the horror.” <Colonel Kurtz> <Apocalypse Now>
The Aggies had trouble stopping anything LY and they finished the 2024 season ranked #121 in total defense (447 YPG) and #127 in scoring defense (36 PPG). It seems impossible to think about but they allowed 30+ points in every game but two (SE Missouri St, MTSU). There’s potential for a bit of improvement this year given the retention of LBs Tyler Martinez (#1 tackler) and LB Sone Aupiu (#4 tackler) in the middle of the defense, and the return of DE Gabe Peterson at DE (Utah St). They’ve got a few big bodies on the interior of the DL assuming that 300-pound NT Cole Schnettgoecke is ready to go for the season opener. The secondary has a lot of holes after the departure of their starting safety duo and we’ll have to see how well the collection of transfers holds up.
SPECIAL TEAMS
CRIKEY, Mate! It appears that the Aggies will be rolling with a pair of Aussies in the kicking game with PK David Barker and punter Max Dean. Grabbing talent from the land DOWN UNDER seems to work for a lot of teams so we’re expecting a positive outcome. The Aggies could definitely use some help at PR and KR.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The set of non-conference assignments is very reasonable with the only certain blowout loss being a trip to Tennessee. Their CUSA draw is tough as they have to go ON THE HIGHWAY to tackle Liberty and WKU, and they also have to play last year’s surprise juggernaut Sam Houston (H).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UTEP (Nov 22)
This will be the Aggies’ third road contest in four weeks and it comes after the aforementioned bloodbath in Knoxville, TN. Their motivation will be questionable if the season is already over in terms of CUSA and bowl aspirations.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 7
Over 4.5 -130
Under 4.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
We’re a wee bit tempted to nibble on the ‘over’ after looking at the non-conference schedule, but realistically, to get to five wins they’ll have to win the clear majority of their competitive games. It’s a pass for now but we’ll take another look during the summer months.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
New Mexico St participated in the first Sun Bowl back in 1936 (!) when they were known as New Mexico A&M. The Aggies fought tooth and nail to earn a 14-14 draw with mighty Hardin-Simmons. Technically speaking, there was a Sun Bowl in 1935 but it involved a pair of high school teams. Tasty trivia bits, bay-bee.
It seems like a long time ago, but it was as recently as 2023 when star QB DIEGO PAVIA led the Aggies to a magical 10-win season. Pavia did some great work with Vanderbilt last year and he sued everyone between Nashville and URANUS during the offseason to ensure he could play at least one more year with the Commodores.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
New Mexico St is one of several programs that inhabit the MILQUETOAST midsection of Conference USA. Some of those teams are gonna surprise and make a bowl game but we’re not sure if the Aggies will be one of those squads. We believe the offense will be pretty good but thinking about that defense, particularly the secondary, gives us a lot of sleepless nights. We’ll call for five wins but give them a PUNCHER’S CHANCE of sneaking into bowl season with a mark of 6-6.