New Orleans Bowl – Appalachian St vs MTSU
The Game
There is a SPICY match-up happening in New Orleans on opening bowl weekend as the Sun Belt CHAMPS and JUGGERNAUT Appalachian St Mountaineers take on the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee. The Mountaineers have already bagged 10 wins this season and can reach 11 (!) for the second time in four years with a victory in this contest. MTSU lost a heartbreaker to UAB in the Conference USA Championship Game and look to GET OFF THE MAT and beat a quality opponent.
Let’s go!
The Details
Appalachian St -7 MTSU (51)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Appalachian St -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Appalachian St 29 MTSU 22
The Match-Up:
Appalachian St offense vs MTSU defense
It’s not pretty, but it’s effective.
Appalachian St does a great job of wearing you out with their rushing attack and they are ranked #15 in the FBS in that department (241 yards per game). Star RB Jalin Moore was lost for the season due to injury at about the middle of the campaign but Darrynton Evans has picked up the slack and then some (1,079, 6.5, 7 TD). Evans finished the regular season with three consecutive 100-yard rushing performances including 111 in the championship win over Louisiana-Lafayette. QB Zac Thomas has been solid all year leading the team to ten wins and a near-upset of YOUR Penn St Nittany Lions. Thomas boasts a fine 18-4 TD to INT ratio and has rushed for 10 scores on the ground. The passing game does just enough and WR Corey Sutton averages 19.3 yards per catch (8 TD). MTSU is ranked #48 in total defense and are average vs the run (#58) and in pass efficiency defense (#49). The Blue Raiders will need to do a better job on third downs (#107) and that may be difficult given that the Mountaineers are often in 3rd and manageable situations. Appalachian St’s implied team total of 29 looks about right to us.
MTSU offense vs Appalachian St defense
11th year senior QB Brent Stockstill (Just kidding. Not really.) will try and go out with a bang. Stockstill stayed healthy and put up some solid numbers in the THROW GAME (28-8 TD to INT, 3,214, 70.5%). The passing attack consists of a lot of high-percentage passes and distribution to a number of different targets. WR Ty Lee leads the way (828, 12.4, 7 TD) but 10 players have tallied 100+ receiving yards on the year. MTSU is going to be in for a tough challenge as Appalachian St has one of the stingiest defenses in college football. The Mountaineers are #6 in the FBS in total defense and #3 (!) in scoring defense allowing just 15.7 PPG. They only allowed 20+ points in two games during the regular season. The run D is solid and the pass defense is excellent (#2 pass efficiency D) having allowed just 7 (!!!) TD passes during the campaign. Only Mississippi St has allowed fewer (5). We expect a decent game from the MTSU passing attack but they are going to have to work for whatever they get in this one.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Appalachian St will be without their excellent HC Scott Satterfield who left the program to coach the LUA-VUH Cardinals…….The Mountaineers have never lost a bowl game (3-0)……MTSU HC Rick Stockstill is just 2-5 SU in bowl games but did bag a win last year over Arkansas St in the Camellia Bowl……The Blue Raiders lost five games this year but THREE of those came vs SEC opponents (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Kentucky).
Summary
It’s hard to know where these teams collective heads are at these days. Appalachian St is coming off a Sun Belt Championship Game and lost their excellent head coach. MTSU lost their title game in gut-wrenching fashion. The Mountaineers are the better team and have the much better defense and rushing attack. Can that overcome the potential lack of interest and distractions?
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Slight lean to Appalachian St.
Total: Slight lean to the under.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.