North Carolina at California – College Football Predictions
The Game
The Golden Bears enter year two of the Justin Wilcox regime having JUST missed a bowl game in 2017. They have a ton of returning experience and will hopefully be ready to take a step forward in 2018. North Carolina is just a few years away from competing in the ACC Championship Game and are an explosive POWDERKEG just waiting to go off. Let’s dig in!
The Details
California -7 (-122) North Carolina (60)
MEGALOCKS LINE – California -10
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: California 33.5 North Carolina 26.5
The Match-Up
North Carolina offense vs California defense
The Tar Heels have a lot of suspensions to deal with entering this game and none is more important than projected starting QB Chazz Surratt who proved to be an emerging dual threat signal caller last year. Nathan Elliott will get the call in this game and he had a pedestrian 10-5 TD to INT ratio last season whilst completing just 51.4% of his passes. Projected #1 RB Michael Carter will miss this game due to injury and the plan is to use a committee approach in week one. The receiving corps returns #1 WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams but is pretty inexperienced behind him on the depth chart. Cal HC Justin Wilcox has a fine defensive mind (Wisconsin, etc.) and helped oversee a yuuuuuge defensive improvement with Cal last season as they allowed just 28.4 PPG after yielding 42.6 in the previous campaign. Look for the 8 returning starters on defense to cause trouble for the UNC offense especially if they can hold the running game in check.
California offense vs North Carolina defense
Cal brings back 10 returning starters on offense including a 3,000-yard QB, a 1,000 yard running back and their top-two WRs. Oh, and all five starters on the offensive line. The Golden Bears scored 35 points on UNC last season, and while the Tar Heels’ defense will be improved, we wonder about week one especially with the absence of DT Aaron Crawford. Our ACC INSIDERS believe that UNC will play better defense this year but it’s hard to project an optimal performance in week one. It will be a long day if the Tar Heels’ defensive front cannot slow down the Cal rushing attack. A tall order, but not impossible.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Cal defeated UNC last season 35-30 in Chapel Hill as double digit dogs…..Is revenge in play?…..UNC is 7-3 ATS in their past 10 road contests…..Cal was 4-2 at home under HC Wilcox last season and that included a win over Ole Miss, a massacre of Washington St (37-3 W) and a one point loss to Arizona.
Summary
We expect improvement for UNC this season. Unfortunately, we did not account for a ton of suspensions in week one, and this match-up is not favorable for the Carolina blue. There are not a lot of starters on the “cannot play list” but depth will be challenged and they would be more dangerous with Surratt at QB. Traveling out west to face a hungry and improving Cal squad does not seem like a great spot.
Conclusion
Official play: Cal -7 -122 (Note – play up to -8) (Note -7 -122 to -125 is widely available) (Also note – if the line goes down and it freaks you out do not play the game. It’s just week one).