North Carolina Tar Heels 2016 NCAA Football Preview
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
Atlantic Coast Conference – Coastal Division
2015 Record – 11-3
ATS – 8-6
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division #1
Conference #3
2015 Recap
The Tar Heels were a lot of fun to watch last year as they set school records in points per game (40.7) and yards per game (487). They had no trouble destroying decent teams when they were running on all cylinders – scored 66 vs Duke and 59 vs Miami in back to back weeks. They tied a school record with 11 wins and what is interesting is that all of those wins came in one streak – sandwiched between losses to South Carolina and then Clemson in the ACC Title Game. The defense was better under DC Chizik but they were still weak at times. Baylor rolled up an all-time bowl record and unfathomable 645 yards rushing in the Russell Athletic Bowl and our sources confirm that Baylor just scored again on a 98-yard TD run.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Replacing QB Marquise Williams and his 3000 yards passing and 948 yards rushing is not going to be easy. The QB battle is obviously something to keep a close eye on as we get closer to the start of the season. Trubisky looked fine last year but he played mostly in mop-up duty other than a game against FCS squad Delaware.
The new QB is going to have a nice setup. NC returns an excellent and experienced OL – only one team has more career starts returning (Bowling Green) – and they may very well lead the Tar Heels to another record-breaking offensive season. The RB and WR cores are both loaded. Elijah Hood (1st team ACC) ran for over 1400 yards and 17 TDs. Mack Hollins led the team in receiving yards and averaged almost 25 yards a catch. They will be scoring points. #HotTake.
JUGGERNAUT ALERT – WR/PR Ryan Switzer led the team in receptions in 2015 and returned two punts for TDs while averaging 13.7 yards per return. Switzer was a 1st team AA punt returner in 2013 when he tied an NCAA record with FIVE punt return TDs averaging over 20 a pop. We look for Switzer to continue putting up numbers in an explosive offense and expect multiple return TDs once again in 2016.
DEFENSE
The Tar Heels made strides defensively last year under new DC Gene Chizik cutting almost 15 points per game off the scoreboard. They featured a couple of 2nd team ACC CBs and finished the season a very impressive 12th in pass efficiency defense. However, they allowed over 240+ yards per game on the ground last year and we see similar issues this season. The front 7 has some inexperience particularly in the LB core – and if they cannot get more pressure on the QB (2015 – 12th ACC in sacks) – it may spell trouble even with a top notch pair of CBs.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This is shaping up to be a fantastic unit. The return game is in great hands. PK Nick Weiler was 20-23 on FG last year and the punting game was decent while only allowing 5 punts to be returned all season.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Despite the fact that North Carolina has some easy spots on the schedule including two games against FCS teams – they also have a tough 4-game stretch with consecutive games against Pittsburgh, at Florida St, Virginia Tech and at Miami. Throw in an opening tilt vs Georgia and we think it will be very difficult to match the 11-win total from last season. Now, if they can get immediate and efficient production at QB combined with some Chizik magic on defense, they could make another run at the ACC crown.
Overall, we give the TAR HEELS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season. The offense will be dynamic once again – but it is really hard to back a team against the spread when their defense struggles to stop the run. That is probably going to be the case again in 2016. As noted earlier, they were efficient vs the pass last season – but other defensive statistics (ACC – 13th total defense, 14th in rushing defense, 14th in 3rd down defense) were very disappointing. The Tar Heels will likely be big favorites in many games, and given the questions we have regarding the defense, we are going to hoist the ATS caution sign for now.
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