College Football Predictions – North Carolina Tar Heels 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 5-7
Yikes.
The Tar Heels bumbled and stumbled their way to a three-win season just two years removed from a trip to the ACC Championship Game. They were riddled by injuries but still only managed victories over Old Dominion, Pitt, and something called Western Carolina.
Despite the 2017 DEBACLE, HC Larry Fedora still has a fine 43-34 record at Chapel Hill and there is reason to believe they will a much improved squad in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division – Tied #4
ACC – Tied #7
North Carolina Tar Heels 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Last season the Tar Heels were LAMBASTED with attrition and injuries but they should be much more well equipped to handle the ACC schedule this year. They have two capable QBs (Chazz Surratt, Nathan Elliott) that combined for a decent 18-8 TD to INT ratio in 2017. Thankfully, there will be no more Brandon Harris (1-8 TD to INT) to drive fans crazy. The Heels should have a better passing attack with the improved talent at QB and a healthy WR corps. Leading receiver Anthony Ratliff-Williams had 630 yards receiving last season with 6 TDs (18.0). The RB group is deep and return their top-two from last season’s squad who totaled over 1,100 yards and 12 TDs on the ground (Jordon Brown, Michael Carter). Our primary concern is an OL that returns just one (!) starter and allowed 30 sacks in 2017.
The Heels scored just 26.0 PPG last season (#11 ACC). We can see them hitting the 30 PPG mark this year BUT we need to see above-average play from the OL for that to happen.
DEFENSE
North Carolina allowed over 30 PPG (31.3) for the first time since 2014 and will need to tighten things up if they plan on making a run in the Coastal division. The most obvious place for improvement is a run defense that has been horrific the past four seasons allowing over 200+ (!) rushing yards on each occasion. Thankfully, the DL looks to be REALLY good this year and just might be the SURPRISE PACKAGE on defense in the division this year. They return three starters to the line and boast emerging star DE Malik Carney (12 TFL, 5 QBH LY). They bring back leading tackler LB Cole Holcomb and 3/4 returning starters in the secondary. They will miss 2nd round NFL DC CB MJ Stewart (Bucs) and have to find a way to increase PENETRATION (23 sacks LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
Things look to be in pretty good shape as they bring back PK Freeman Jones, P Hunter Lent, and KR Anthony Ratliff-Jones (2 TD, 26.3 LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not that bad. They avoid Clemson and Florida St from the Atlantic Division but have tough (though, winnable) games out-of-conference (at Cal, UCF).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing of note.
Season Win Total
Over 5 +100
Under 5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The schedule sets up nicely and the defense is better than most people think.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The nickname “Tar Heels” is steeped in tradition going back well into the 1800s. There are many historical anecdotes (some believable, some not so much) but the basic idea is the connection to the production of naval stores (tar, pitch, rosin, turpentine). Amaze your STALKER EX-GIRLFRIEND with that trivia nugget.
North Carolina has only managed to record 8 (!) INTs over the past two seasons combined.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TAR HEELS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Last season we penned the following whilst giving the Tar Heels a 3.0 rating (finished 5-7 ATS). Are we wizards? Not sure, but it’s a fair question.
There is just way too much uncertainty on offense. HC Fedora does a fine job but we feel that it will be a struggle when you look at some of the defenses they have to face. We believe the defense will be better than expected so all is not lost. It just does not seem fair to ask these guys to have a season that exceeds expectations considering all the new faces. Tread lightly.
What about 2018?
<note that we love North Carolina and are currently typing this preview whilst looking at the ocean in Oak Island, NC>
We don’t want to sound like TV Analyst Guy but it truly comes down to the offensive line. The defense will be good enough to keep them in most games but the offense needs to be able to have consistency and balance. That starts with the big boys.
HC Larry Fedora has only had two losing seasons vs Vegas in six years as the boss in North Carolina. We think this team might slide under the radar. They get on the “mildly intrigued list” to start the season.
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WEBSITE
http://www.goheels.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=12962&SPSID=667864&SITE=UNC&DB_OEM_ID=3350
FORUM
Free
http://www.scout.com/college/north-carolina/forums/1408-the-tar-pit
Restricted
http://northcarolina.247sports.com/Board/North-Carolina-Tar-Heels-Message-Board-Forum-141
https://northcarolina.forums.rivals.com/forums/blue-heaven.18/
NEWS
http://keepingitheel.com/football/
http://www.tarheelblog.com/unc-tar-heels-football
http://www.tarheeltimes.com/uncfootball.aspx
TWITTER
Hashtags – #TarHeelNation, #GoHeels
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