College Football Predictions – North Carolina Tar Heels 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 2-9
ATS – 6-5
The Tar Heels couldn’t overcome a boatload of suspensions and injuries and struggled to a two-win season. Five of their nine losses were by a TD or less, but close doesn’t pay the bills. Enter legendary HC Mack Brown who starts his second tour of duty in Chapel Hill. There is talent on the roster and North Carolina was in the ACC Championship Game as recently as 2015. Hmm.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division – #6
ACC -#12
North Carolina Tar Heels 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Phil Longo comes over from Ole Miss where he did a fine job as the OC. There are a lot of interesting pieces to work with in Chapel Hill including star recruit QB Sam Howell who looked good in the spring. It remains to be seen if North Carolina will throw him to the wolves right away (South Carolina, Miami) but it appears certain that the Tar Heels have their QB of the future. The WR and TE groups are solid even with the loss of Anthony Ratliff-Williams (689, 16.4, 2 TD LY) as they return #2 through #6 in terms of receiving yards from a season ago.
The RB group is the strength of the offense as they return a good 1-2 combo in Michael Carter and Antonio Williams (1,101 combined rushing yards LY) and have a potential star emerging in Javonte Williams who impressed during the spring. Fun fact: Javonte Williams was the 1,476th best prospect in his class according to 247 Sports Composite. The offensive line returns three starters including a really good LT in Charlie Heck, and remember that the Tar Heels averaged 5.3 YPC (#4 ACC) and allowed just 10 sacks (!) (#1 ACC) last year.
North Carolina seems poised for significant improvement on offense (27.4 PPG LY), although keep in mind that they face a lot of good defenses, especially early in the season.
DEFENSE
Jay Bateman did a wonderful job as DC at Army and joins the UNC staff as co-DC and safeties coach this season. We are excited about this hire and think that he can do a good job with the talent on hand (seven returning starters), and recall that the defense was significantly impacted by injuries and suspensions in 2018. The Tar Heels lose their top-three tacklers from last year’s defense including LB Cole Holcomb who is off to the NFL (Redskins) as well as DE Malik Carney who led the team in sacks and TFL. They bring back excellent NG Aaron Crawford who missed last season due to injury and look to have another solid secondary.
North Carolina has allowed 30+ PPG in each of the last two seasons (34.5 LY) but we can see them making meaningful strides and getting below the 30 PPG barrier. Our only hesitation is that they face a daunting schedule (see below).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Tar Heels need to break in a new P and PK, but at least they bagged former Appalachian St PK Michael Rubino as a grad transfer. Dazz Newsome is a dangerous PR but they will miss Ratliff-Williams’ explosiveness on KR.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – YIKES. The Tar Heels somehow face 11 teams that made bowl games last season. Mercer provides some relief. Things are nasty right off the start as they face South Carolina, Miami, Wake, Appalachian St, and Clemson in their first five contests.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Appalachian St (September 21)
This game falls between ACC tilts with Wake Forest and Clemson. This game will be circled on the Mountaineers’ calendar as they would love to pull an in-state upset and SHOCK THE WORLD.
Season Win Total
Over 5 +105
Under 5 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
Tough call. This team is poised to surprise some folks but getting to five wins might be difficult.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Mack Brown amassed an impressive record of 69-46-1 (.599) in ten seasons during his first stint at North Carolina.
In June of this year, Mack Brown had knee replacement surgery performed by one of his former players. Dr Michael Bolognesi was a defensive back for the Tar Heels from 1989-1993. Astound the BACKSTABBING HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGER at the next lame company work function with that little trivia nugget.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
This feels like a program ready to make a nice step forward. The question becomes: will it be this season? There are going to be growing pains introducing a new coaching staff and systems, and it’s not fair to expect miracles out of a true freshman QB, if that’s the direction they decide to go. Bowl eligibility would be a truly fine accomplishment. It’s not impossible, but WHOA NELLIE, that schedule.
We’ll start the season with a neutral ATS view on these guys but don’t forget about them if they start slow. Value will almost certainly present itself later in the season. Go Heels!
Want more North Carolina football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.goheels.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=12962&SPSID=667864&SITE=UNC&DB_OEM_ID=3350
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina/Board/Tar-Pit-102711/
https://northcarolina.forums.rivals.com/forums/blue-heaven.18/
NEWS
http://keepingitheel.com/football/
http://www.tarheelblog.com/unc-tar-heels-football
http://www.tarheeltimes.com/uncfootball.aspx
https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/153/north-carolina-tar-heels
TWITTER
Hashtags – #CarolinaFootball, #BeTheOne
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