North Carolina Tar Heels 2022 College Football Preview
August 2, 2022
2021 Recap
Record – 6-7
ATS – 5-8
It was a disappointing season for the Tar Heels as they started 2-1 and then alternated losses and wins for the remainder of the regular season. They didn’t have a signature win (Miami? Wake?) and had a couple of puzzling losses along the way (Noles, Jackets). They were blown out by South CACKALACKY in the Mayo Bowl (L 38-21) and finished the year with a losing record, their first such disaster since the return of Mack Brown.
North Carolina Tar Heels 2022 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Tar Heels were potent LY (35.2 PPG, #19 FBS) and did a great job of staying balanced (#18 rush, #42 pass). There’s a yuuuge hole to be filled with the loss of their all-time leader passer Sam Howell and it’ll be up to one of a pair of inexperienced youngsters (Drake Maye, Jacolby Criswell) to take the reins. Whomever is under center is gonna have a loaded set of THROW GAME weaponry to utilize including superstar WR Josh Downs (101, 1,335, 8 TD LY) and WR Antoine Green (612, 19.5, 5 TD). It won’t be easy to replace #1 RB Ty Chandler (1,092, 13 TD LY) but they’ve got several possible options in the RB room and we feel confident that one or two talented doods will emerge. The OL should be fine as they return over 100 career starts and have a number of highly-recruited players waiting to play significant roles. The offense will be good, but HOW good depends on what they have at QB, and note that Howell was a very dangerous runner (828, 11 TD) and that threat will be missed in 2022.
DEFENSE
North Carolina struggled on defense LY and couldn’t hold their own vs the run (180 YPG, #97 FBS) or defend the THROW GAME adequately (#103 pass efficiency D). We’re more optimistic than many about the stop unit this season as they return eight starters and appear to be “average” or better at every level of the defense. They have size and raw talent up front and DT Myles Murphy is a rising star. They’re experienced at LB and are led by #1 tackler Cedric Gray but will miss tackling machine Jeremiah Gemmel. Three starters return on the back end including their fine safety Cam’Ron Kelly and their CB group is better than advertised. The only thing missing is an elite pass rushing threat and they lose sack leader Tomon Fox (8.5). If they can turn up the heat a bit more (29 sacks LY, #9 ACC) we think the stop unit can do good things. Stay tuned!
SPECIAL TEAMS
This appears to be a middle of the road group as they bring back a pair of average return specialists and a punter that booked a poor 36.4 yard net LY. They also need to replace their solid PK Grayson Atkins (19-23 FG, 2-5 50+).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They’ve got a pair of tough non-conference tilts (at Appalachian St, Notre Dame) but miss Clemson from the Atlantic division. Their final two games are at home including the season finale vs NC State which could have yuuuge ACC implications.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – September 10 – at Georgia St
This bad boy is sandwiched between a tough in-state non-conference affair with Appalachian St and the home game vs the Irish. <note: bye week after Georgia St game, then Irish>
Season Win Total
per BetOnline Aug 3
Over 7.5 +100
Under 7.5 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
That looks about right to us. We’d lean ‘over’ 7, and ‘under’ 8.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
North Carolina was the first college team to use the forward pass. Legend has it that they used the concept to take down Georgia 6-0 in 1895. That’s a serious TRIVIA BOMB, yo.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
This is an interesting team. There’s a big unknown at QB and the defense doesn’t look spectacular by any means, but it’s not like the Coastal division is full of killers. They’re one of three teams we consider as contenders in this half of the ACC and they’ll be a dangerous bunch if one of the young QBs rises to the occasion.
Want more North Carolina football ?
WEBSITE
https://goheels.com/sports/football
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina/Board/Tar-Pit-102711/
https://northcarolina.forums.rivals.com/forums/blue-heaven.18/
NEWS
http://keepingitheel.com/football/
http://www.tarheelblog.com/unc-tar-heels-football
http://www.tarheeltimes.com/uncfootball.aspx
https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/153/north-carolina-tar-heels