North Carolina Tar Heels 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 1, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 6-7
The Tar Heels jetted out to a sharp 6-0 start and appeared to be legit contenders in the ACC. Two weeks later, North Carolina faithful were shaking their heads wondering how in the SAM HILL they lost as yuuuge favorites in back-to-back weeks to Virginia and Georgia Tech. Those losses killed any realistic hopes of doing something special and they ended up losing their final two regular season games, as well as the Mayo Bowl vs West Virginia (L 30-10).
North Carolina Tar Heels 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
North Carolina moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last year (491 YPG, #7 FBS) behind the guidance of star QB Drake Maye who’s now off to the NFL (1st round, Pats) and there will certainly be a downgrade at the QB position. Max Johnson (Texas A&M, LSU) is a decent replacement but he’s certainly no ‘Drake Maye’. Backup QB Conner Harrell showed some SKILLZ in limited action LY but it’s definitely the Max Johnson Show until we hear otherwise. The best news on offense relates to the return of their devastating RB Omarion Hampton who filled up the stat sheet LY (1,504 rush 15 TD; 29 receptions, TD). The THROW GAME weaponry looks really good as everyone of note at WR/TE returns for duty other than stud WR Tez Walker. The offensive line only retains one starter so that’s no great, and note that the Tar Heels have allowed 37/40/49 sacks the L3Y. Can a new starting configuration be worse, or could things get better? This offense is still gonna be tough for defenses to deal with but they’re clearly down a notch from what we’ve witnessed over the last four or five years.
DEFENSE
The stop unit wasn’t a complete disaster LY (#11 ACC run D, #8 pass efficiency D) but they certainly looked weaker down the stretch (30/39/31/45 points allowed L4G) whilst achieving less than optimal PENETRATION (28 sacks, #10 ACC). Seven returning starters and an upgrade at DC (Geoff Collins) make us believe we’ll see some improvement in 2024. We’re especially intrigued by the DL as they’ve got a legit star at DE in Kaimon Rucker (15 TFL)(!) and nice size on the interior. The LB group isn’t loaded with prime specimens but linebacker POWER Echols is a legit stabilizing force who had over 100 tackles in 2023. The secondary boasts several experienced upperclassmen including a pair of very talented CBs (Allen, Huzzie) so the Tar Heels should be tougher to throw against, particularly if the pass rush can create more disruption.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Tar Heels ranked a disgusting #118 in Phil Steele’s special teams ratings LY but that was due in large part to SIMPLE JACK mistakes (blocked punts, etc.) and not necessarily because of a lack of talent. Recall that PK Noah Burnette was deadly LY (19/20 FG!) and PR Alijah Hizzie took one to the CRIBBY HIZZY vs Pitt.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Tar Heels have a shot to get off to a great start, especially if they can find a way to beat Minnesota in week one. They follow up that road opener with three straight extremely winnable home games (Charlotte, NC Central, James Madison) before ACC play kicks in. Speaking of the conference schedule, they’ve got four of the weaker teams up first (Duke, Pitt, Ga Tech, Virginia) and that should help give them stay in the hunt. North Carolina doesn’t face Miami, Clemson, or Virginia Tech but have to face the Seminoles in Tallahassee.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – James Madison (Sept 21)
This doesn’t appear to be a great spot to back the home favorite as it could be a sleepy spot (3rd straight home game) and note that the Tar Heels begin ACC play the following week (at Duke).
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 1
Over 7.5 -140
Under 7.5 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
The roster isn’t overwhelming but seven wins looks like the floor with that schedule.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
North Carolina is 20-6 SU at home since 2020.
The Tar Heels have lost four consecutive bowl games (15-23 overall) (!) with their last win coming back in the 2019 Military Bowl when they beat Temple like a RENTED MULE (W 55-13).
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
The Tar Heels have wasted some golden opportunities over the last few seasons given the talent they’ve had at the quarterback position. You have to believe that the offense will take a step back this year whilst the defense might be a bit better. The schedule is the ULTIMATE ARBITER and North Carolina comes out with the DECISION in our minds. The schedule is very manageable so we think their floor is seven wins, with the upside being very dependent on what kind of QB play they get this year. North Carolina could be 4-0 in ACC play heading into the Florida St game so don’t count these guys out yet.