North Carolina Tar Heels 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 17, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 6-7
ATS – 4-9
The Tar Heels opened up on a little bit of a HEATER by taking down their first three opponents including a scrappy Minnesota team on the road. Things started to fall apart the following week when they allowed not 40, not 50, not 60, wait for it, 70 (!) points in a home loss to James Madison. That was the first of four losses in a row but at least they managed to book a three-game winning streak later in the season. UNC had a shot to finish with a winning record but were upended in the Fenway Bowl by UConn (L 27-14).
North Carolina SHOCKED the WORLD during the offseason when they hired the great BILL BELICHICK to take over the reins as head coach. Belichick SHOCKED the WORLD by parading around his spicy SMOKESHOW girlfriend.
Do the Tar Heels have a shot to contend in the ACC this season?
North Carolina Tar Heels 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Tar Heels averaged 30+ PPG for the 6th consecutive time LY (31 PPG, #43) and they did it with a very balanced approach (182 YPG rush, 224 YPG pass). UNC has a deep QB room and it appears very likely that former South Alabama starting QB Gio Lopez will get first crack at the starting gig (18-5 TD to INT; 465, 7 rush TD LY). True freshman Bryce Baker and Max Johnson provide excellent depth at the position. The biggest hole on the entire roster was created with the departure of superstar RB Omarion Hampton who was absolutely devastating LY (1,660, 15 TD; 373 receiving, 2 TD) and this year’s RB room doesn’t exactly looked JACKED with talent. Maybe sophomore RB Davion Gause can develop into a dangerous #1 option? The Tar Heels lost their #1 WR as well as TE John Copenhaver (414, 4 TD) but they’ve still got WR Kobe Paysour hanging around (365, 17.4) and a couple of promising youngsters that’ll be forced to produce right away. Keep your eye on sophomore WR Jordan Shipp and true freshman WR Adrian Wilson. The offensive line is in good shape as it’s littered with former starters and they boast over 150 career starts in the unit.
DEFENSE
North Carolina was slightly below average in the ACC LY (#11 run D, #10 pass efficiency D) but they did a good job of achieving PENETRATION (41 sacks, #10 FBS). It’s extremely difficult to know what to expect this season as there are over a dozen transfers on the depth chart that might end up playing significant snaps, and note that they’ll be without their top-four tacklers and all of their leading sack producers from the 2024 stop unit. Some doods that are likely to be key contributors include DE Pryce Yates (12.5 sacks L3Y at UConn), LB Andrew Simpson (Boise St), and safety Gavin Gibson (East Carolina). We project an “average” ACC defense but concede there’s definitely some upside with veteran DC Steve Belichick in charge.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things are in decent shape with the return of punter Tom Maginess and KR Chris Culliver who took a PAIR back to the HIZZY CRIBBY in 2024. New PK Rece Verhoff was effective at Marshall LY (14/19 FG, 40-40 XP) but they’ll need to find a replacement for PR Alijah Huzzie (TD LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule is a mixed bag as they’ve got a pair of MORTAL LOCKS (at Charlotte, Richmond) and a couple of games that are tricky to say the least (TCU, at UCF). The ACC schedule couldn’t be much more advantageous as they avoid Miami, SMU, and LUA-VUH, and they don’t face any back-to-back road game situations.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing heinous is noted.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 17
Over 7.5 +150
Under 7.5 -200
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
Our GUN to the HEAD selection would be the ‘over’ but there are just too many new faces on board to make a firm decision on the win total. The schedule is certainly a yuuuge help.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
North Carolina has lost five bowls games in a row and eight of their last nine.
John Bunting was allowed to coach 72 games from 2001 to 2006 (27-45, .375).
All-time great LB Lawrence Taylor once sacked a QB and ripped his head clean off. He used that severed head to bowl a perfect 300 game in 10-pin bowling later that day ****.
**** Fact check – We haven’t seen any evidence to suggest that it didn’t happen.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
GET CHO POPCONE, yo.
The great Bill Belichick will give it a try down in Chapel Hill and whether you like it or not, and whether you’re upset about his ability to have a hot girlfriend or not, the Tar Heels are going to be one of the most interesting stories in college football this year. They look set at QB and we’ve got faith in the offensive line but it’s hard to know how dangerous the RB/WR weaponry will be this season. The defense is a bit of a mystery but we have to believe that the coaching staff will find a way to cobble together a decent stop unit. This is a high-variance team and we’ll call for seven or eight wins thanks in large part to a buttery soft schedule. Go Heels!