North Dakota St Bison 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 20, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 12-1
ATS – 6-7
It’s about time North Dakota St started playing the big boys on a regular basis. The Bison roll into year one of FBS football with absolutely nothing left to prove at the lower levels, even if they enter 2026 off a YUUUGE upset loss to Illinois St in Round One of the FCS Playoffs — a rare stumble for a program that’s spent a decade and a half terrorizing the subdivision in the Bison dynasty era.
Now we get to check in and see whether this machine has the MINERALS to compete in the Mountain West, or if the jump to the big leagues exposes a few dents in the armor.
WELCOME TO THE SHOW!
North Dakota Bison 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
The offense was exquisite last season, scoring 41 PPG, but they enter this year without their starting QB, a 1,000‑yard RB, and a 1,000‑yard WR. That’s a lot of production walking out the door.
Former star QB Cole Payton is off to the NFL, but it’s NEXT MAN UP in this part of the country, and the staff is fully confident that new starter Nathan Hayes can perform at a high level. He looked good in limited action LY, and he’s a mobile senior with a good arm — a profile that should translate beautifully to the Mountain West.
Replacing former RB1 Barika Kpeenu won’t be easy — the dood ran for over 1,000 yards and 20 (!!) TDs — but we’ve got a great feeling about last year’s backup DJ Scott, who did fine work when called upon (502, 5.3, 6 TD). And let’s be real: the Bison always find a way to get the ground game rolling.
We’re just as pumped about the THROW GAME weaponry. The Bison bring back three doods ready to make key contributions:
- WR Jackson Williams (293, 17.2, TD)
- WR Mehki Collins (26.5! YPC, 2 TD)
- TE Reis Kessel (335, 22.3, TD), a lethal pass‑catching threat
Sure, it stings to lose the top guys from last year, but this group has enough juice to keep the offense balanced and dangerous in the Bison aerial reboot.
Things should be just fine up front. They lose a couple excellent pieces, but three starters return, and the projected starting five will average well over 300 pounds. Oh — and they added a nice piece from Kansas State in Kene Akene, who should start from day one at guard and immediately upgrade the Bison trenches.
DEFENSE
The Bison were immaculate on defense last year, allowing an impossibly impossible 13 PPG (!) and 252 YPG. Obviously that kind of dominance won’t carry over as they move into the Mountain West, but those numbers deserved a moment of sheer respect, yo.
Up front, NDSU returns some experienced pieces in DE Kelton McCaslin and DT Keenan Wilson, and don’t sleep on Montana Tech transfer DE Anthony Okes, who achieved impressive PENETRATION with the OREDIGGERS in 2025. The Bison DL isn’t loaded with star power, but this group has a good mix of size, production, and experience, and enough depth to rotate effectively in the NDSU trenches.
The middle layer of the stop unit looks rock solid with the return of LB Donovan Woolen, who loved to FILL UP the box score last year (#1 tackles, 5 TFL, 9 PBU, 3 INT), plus the addition of veteran Keith Williams, who was steady and reliable at Cornell in 2025. That duo gives the Bison a legit backbone in the second level.
The secondary retains some local experience, and key components to watch include safety Darius Givance and senior CB DJ Voltz, who was excellent with Saginaw Valley last season. It’s not a star‑studded group, but there’s enough talent to keep this unit competent and competitive as they transition into the Mountain West landscape.
SPECIAL TEAMS
We like the way things look in this area, and that’s important as they move up in class to the FBS. They’ve gotta find a new PK, which isn’t ideal, but they retain their fine punter Aaron Bickerton, as well as return DYNAMO Jackson Williams, who took a punt and a kickoff back to the HIZZY CRIBBY last year for the Bison.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s a mixed bag. The Bison should be able to stack three non-conference wins in September (Jacksonville St, Fordham, and Sacramento St). Their fourth “non-conference” game comes late in the year at San Jose St (see our AWARD-WINNING Spartans preview for more on that matchup).
The bad news? Their Mountain West road schedule is brutal — UNLV, New Mexico, Air Force, and Hawaii. Yikes.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UNLV (Oct 10)
This could be a bit of a letdown spot, as the Bison will be coming off their Mountain West home opener against Wyoming whilst facing one of the best teams in the conference.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 20
Over 8.5 -190
Under 8.5 +140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
These guys are legit contenders, but the road schedule alone will make it tough to reach nine wins. Taking plus money on the under seems like the way to go.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MEGALOCKS Official FARGO Power Ratings:
When it comes to the anthology chaos of Fargo, two seasons stand above the rest like absolute gridiron legends. Season 1 takes the gold medal, led by the cold-blooded, shape-shifting menace Lorne Malvo — Billy Bob Thornton’s apex predator who slithers through town like a defensive end who runs a 4.4 and hits like a truck. Pure, uncut villainy. Then comes Season 3 with the silver, captained by the shadow-dwelling puppet master V.M. Varga and the electric, impossibly HOT Nikki Swango.
The Bison are 80-6 (!) at home over the last ten seasons.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
North Dakota State’s arrival in the FBS is one of the most exciting storylines of the entire season, and we see no reason why the Bison can’t be right in the thick of things this year. They appear to be a balanced outfit with Mountain West–caliber talent on both sides of the football, and you know they’ll be well coached.
Still, it might be a tall order to ask them to win the whole thing right away. There’s too much key production lost on offense, and the road schedule is a doozy, meaning the margin for error is razor-thin. We think they’ll fit in beautifully in their new surroundings and put together a successful debut campaign, but we can only view them as a longshot contender for all the marbles in the refurbished Mountain West.
Fight on, you Bison, fight on!