College Football Predictions – North Texas Mean Green 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 4-9
It’s a good sign for North Texas when a nine-win campaign is considered by many to be a disappointment. Hopes were high that they could make the C-USA Championship Game for a second consecutive season but losses to rivals Louisiana Tech and UAB ruined that opportunity. They finished the regular season with a pair of victories (Florida Atlantic, at UTSA) but got blown to bits by the JUGGERNAUT Utah St Aggies in the New Mexico Bowl. North Texas (hopefully) learned that it’s important to have something better than PURE FILTH as a back-up QB after watching what happened after the first quarter injury to Mason Fine in the aforementioned bowl game.
HC Seth Littrell is doing some good work in Denton. Do they have the MINERALS to make another C-USA title run?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #1
Conference USA – #2
North Texas Mean Green 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Mean Green were excellent on offense last year and averaged around 35 PPG for the second consecutive season. It never hurts to have a star QB under center and Mason Fine is back for one more kick at the cat (Note – this is an expression. We don’t condone kicking cats. Thanks). Fine completed 65% of his passes a season ago with a nifty 27-5 TD to INT ratio and he has another fine-looking set of weapons to work with in 2019. WR Rico Bussey was a 1st Team C-USA performer and tallied over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs last year despite missing their bowl game. Overall, the WR and TE positions are deep and very dangerous. The THROW GAME will be supplemented by one of the best RB units in C-USA. DeAndre Torrey is one of the top RBs in the conference and is coming off a campaign in which he rushed for almost 1,000 yards and 15 (!) TDs whilst snagging 25 receptions in his spare time. The depth behind Torrey is impressive. THE HITS KEEP COMING! The offensive line looks to be a solid shape with three returning starters including their fine center Sosaia Mose (2nd Team C-USA). They also add a transfer from Virginia Tech to the mix.
We are PUMPED to see these guys in action and think they are the best offense in the conference. They just need Mason Fine to stay healthy <crosses fingers>. Former OC Graham Harrell is off to USC and that is the only concern we have. Stay tuned.
DEFENSE
North Texas made an impressive improvement last year and allowed just 24.2 PPG (#5 C-USA) after yielding 35.0 (!) in 2017. We have concerns about the 2019 stop unit as they only bring back five starters, and more importantly, lose their top-three tacklers from a season ago who were all excellent players. LB EJ Ejiya bagged 120 tackles and an impossible 25 (!) (TFL), LB Brandon Garner was 2nd on the squad in tackles and logged 6.5 sacks, and CB Nate Brooks had six INTs (T2 FBS). What about this year?
There appears to be enough pieces to make things work. The DL looks good and they return 1st Team C-USA DE LaDarius Hamilton who had 7.5 sacks a season ago. It’s hard to know what to know what to expect from the LB group given the loss of talent. It seems certain that they will be softer vs the run than last year’s defense that allowed a mere 120 YPG rushing (#5 C-USA). Losing a pair of stud CBs is not a good thing but at least they boast one of the better safety duos in the conference. The Mean Green were #1 in C-USA a season ago in INTs (18) and #4 in pass efficiency D. Those metrics will likely decline.
This has the look of an average defense on paper. ALERT to totals players. They may be involved in more shootouts than the market anticipates. <grabs popcorn>
SPECIAL TEAMS
North Texas boasted excellent special teams play last year and still have a couple of key elements returning for battle. KR DeAndre Torrey averaged 28 yards per KR last year (TD) and P Alvin Kenworthy is one of the best in the conference. Bad news? Star PK Cole Hedlund needs to be replaced (19/22 FG LY) (!).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Things look good in our estimation. The non-conference docket is manageable (Abilene Christian, at SMU, at California, Houston) and all of those games are winnable. They have to play Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech on the road but finish the season with a home date vs UAB.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at California (September 14)
It’s their first game vs PAC-12 opposition since 2002 (!) and is the second of back-to-back road dates (SMU). Conference play is on deck (UTSA) and the Golden Bears have an excellent defense.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -135
Under 7.5 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the ‘over’. They are capable of beating any team on their schedule. Of course, their defense may keep the opponent in every game as well.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Apogee Stadium’s sustainable and environmentally-friendly design features are impressive. In 2011, it became the first newly-built stadium to achieve LEED Platinum certification, the highest level awarded by the U.S. Green Building Council.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
Buckle up.
The Mean Green are just one of four solid teams that are capable of taking down the division. The offense promises to move like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE but it’s unclear what to expect from the defense. We would be surprised if the final game of the season vs UAB doesn’t have serious C-USA implications. At a minimum, these guys are going to be a fun team to watch.
North Texas is slightly below the .500 mark ATS since the arrival of Seth Littrell (19-21). There’s more upside than downside with respect to their point spread covering prospects, but it’s our corporate policy to take a conservative approach with teams that have significant questions on defense.
Go Mean Green!
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NEWS
http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/unt-mean-green
https://www.dentonrc.com/sports/colleges/mean_green/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/249/north-texas-mean-green
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/north-texas-eagles
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