North Texas Mean Green 2021 College Football Preview
Created July 26, 2021
Record – 4-6
ATS – 3-7
The shortened casedemic season wasn’t kind to the Mean Green as they sputtered their way to a second consecutive four-win season. Their conquests were nothing to be proud of (Houston Baptist, MTSU, Rice, UTEP) and they allowed 40+ on six occasions. HC Seth Littrell has at least one more chance to get this program moving in the right direction.
North Texas Mean Green 2021 Outlook
Offense was NOT the issue last year as the Mean Green moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on most occasions. They ranked #8 (!) in the FBS in total offense LY (513 YPG) and were equally adept at rolling on the ground (230 YPG, #13) or using the THROW GAME (#25). Austin Aune essentially split the attempts with the departed Jason Bean LY and looked pretty good (55%, 13-4 TD to INT). Keep your eye on transfer QB Jace Rudder from North Carolina. The strength of offense is the excellent 1-2 RB combo of DeAndre Torrey and Oscar Adaway who combined for over 1,200Y and 9 TD LY. Both men averaged 5.8 YPC. They lose ALL-UNIVERSE WR Jaelon Darden to the NFL (1,190, 19 TD) but note that Deonte Simpson caught 25 balls LY and averaged over 20 YPC (4 TD). It’s also possible that Torrey will be used at WR this season to give defenses fits. The OL returns four starters and did a good job in run blocking and pass protection LY. These guys will still be able to SCORE the FOOTBALL. <update – RB Adaway OFY with injury>
The stop unit was HOT GARBAGE last year as they allowed 43 PPG (#125 FBS) and 522 YPG (dead last FBS). They were shredded for an impossible 269 YPG on the ground. The vast majority of the two-deep returns this year (10 RS) and we hope that’s a good thing for new DC Phil Bennett. The DL looks to be in better shape than expected with the return of star DT Dion Novil (6’4 330, 8 TFL LY), DE Gabriel Murphy (4 sacks), and DE Grayson Murphy (3 sacks). Leading tackler KD Davis leads the linebacker corps but they have to find a way to improve on the back end. It’s hard to project much improvement but we see promise on the DL and like the upgrade at DC.
PK Ethan Mooney had a disappointing 2020 season (7/14 FG) but recall that he hit 80% in 2019. P Bernardo Rodriguez does a good job.
Overall – It’s challenging. They draw SMU (A), Missouri (A), and Liberty (H) in non-conference play and have to face Marshall from the East.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at FIU (November 20)
This will be their 3rd road test in 4G and the Mean Green are just 18-29 ATS L10Y as road doggies.
Season Win Total
Per 5Dimes July 26
Over 4 +105
Under 4 -125
That looks about right. They’ll score enough to bag some wins but the schedule doesn’t do them many favors.
North Texas won (or shared) four consecutive Sun Belt titles from 2001-2004. They haven’t won a conference title since those glory days.
This just might be CRAP OR GET OFF THE POT time for Seth Littrell. They showed promise a few years ago with back-to-back nine-win campaigns but have stubbed their toes the last two seasons. They look to have one of the better offenses in C-USA yet again but thinking about that defense keeps us up at night. The high-water mark is probably bowl eligibility by the skin of their teeth.
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