North Texas Mean Green 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 29, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 12-2
ATS – 10-4
The Mean Green shot out of the gate with gusto and rattled off five consecutive wins to open the season, but they got a rude awakening in game number six when South Florida came to town and gave them the HOW-TO and the WHAT-FOR in a blowout 63-36 victory. North Texas wasn’t deterred and went on a major HEATER, winning their final six regular-season games and booking a spot in the American Conference Championship Game. They met up with a nasty Tulane squad in New Orleans and fell just short of a championship campaign. The Mean Green took down San Diego State in a thrilling New Mexico Bowl to finish with an incredible twelve wins.
That was a job WELL DONE!
North Texas Mean Green 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (American):
- Scoring: 45.1 PPG (#1 American)
- Total Offense: 512.4 YPG (#1 American)
- Rushing: 194.4 YPG (#5 American)
- Passing: 318.0 YPG (#2 American)
- Sacks Allowed: 18 (#4 American)
The Mean Green moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last year as they led the entire nation in scoring and in yards per game. In fact, they were the only outfit that averaged more than 500 yards per game, and they did so quite handily.
QB Drew Mestemaker was an absolute nightmare for opposing defenses last season (4,379 yards, 34-9 TD-to-INT) but he’s moved on to Oklahoma St, and the Mean Green will roll with veteran Tayven Jackson, who’s been with a number of programs, most recently UCF. Jackson has a meh career TD to INT ratio, so it’ll be interesting to see how he adapts to the Mean Green approach.
North Texas was so lethal last year because they could murder you with the THROW GAME or the ground attack. Sadly, the top four RBs all depart, including star RB Caleb Hawkins (1,434 yards, 25 TD!), and that means a serious rebuilding project is underway. There are some intriguing transfer specimens on board, most notably Jahiem White, who was very dangerous during his time with West Virginia (two 800+ yard rushing campaigns), but it’ll be insanely difficult to replace a dood like Hawkins.
Okay, and you wanna talk CARNAGE — North Texas’ WR/TE room was completely wiped out and nobody who tallied more than 100 receiving yards last season is back for duty in 2026. There are countless transfers on board, and the Mean Green are seriously lacking in FBS experience. Corri Milliner (UAB) and holdover Baron Tipton (6-5, 212) are two talented, albeit unproven WRs worth watching. Our North Texas INSIDERS have also told us to watch out for TJ Chukwurah, who did some serious damage at Division II school Black Hills State last year (66 catches, 1,100 yards, 16 TD). Oh, those kooky Yellow Jackets!
The offensive line also needs to be rebuilt, and while it’s hard to predict how good they’ll be, we’re very happy with the number of Power 4 transfers, and the projected starting five weighs in at an average of 321 pounds.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (American):
- Scoring: 26.5 PPG (#7 American)
- Total Defense: 381.9 YPG (#6 American)
- Rushing Defense: 215.7 YPG (#14 American, dead last)
- Passing Defense: 166.2 YPG (#1 American)
- Sacks: 24 (#6 American)
Those numbers are fascinating. The Mean Green gave up rushing yards like they were hosting a Black Friday sale on explosive plays — NO LIMIT per customer. On the other hand, they were very stingy defending the pass and didn’t allow many yards despite the fact the opponent was often chasing. They were #13 in the country in pass efficiency defense.
It’s hard to predict what’s gonna happen this year as North Texas only returns one of their top fifteen tacklers, and the new DC is Matt Powledge, who didn’t exactly end his tenure on a high note as the DC at Baylor. The DL will be better this season, but how much better remains to be seen. They’ve got more size this year and essentially turned over the entire two-deep. Two additions worth noting are DE Davion Rhodes, a veteran from Georgia Southern, and DT Justin Benton (East Carolina).
We’re actually pretty happy with the FRESH MEAT brought in at LB. Aaron Alexander had an excellent season with Arkansas St last year and led the team in tackles, and Zakye Barker booked over 130 tackles during his tenure with SMU and East Carolina. Still, it won’t be easy to replace the oodles of production from the 2025 squad.
We’re most concerned with the back end of the stop unit as everyone of consequence has fled the scene from a dynamite secondary. Once again, it’ll be up to a boatload of transfers to come together and figure things out, but they didn’t exactly grab a who’s who of secondary talent through the portal. However, it’s not a lost cause as they added several guys from Power 4 outfits including CB Caden Jenkins (Baylor) and Keshawn Davila (Woo Pig), but they’ll be more vulnerable through the air this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Color us shocked, but North Texas has to replace everyone of note in the special teams arena, and that’s not great. On a positive note, they pilfered the punter, PK, and special teams coordinator from Appalachian St, and we expect at least average performance in 2026.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – YIKES. The Mean Green could easily start 0-3 as they open with the DEATH STAR Indiana Hoosiers on the road, and their next two contests are also tough (UNLV, at Texas St). They also got roasted by the schedule-maker in terms of American Conference action as they have to face Navy, Tulane, and UTSA — all on the road. Thankfully, they also drew a bunch of deadbeats (Charlotte, Rice, UAB), and they play them all in Denton.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Indiana (Sept 5)
Indiana has no problem CRUSHING and KILLING inferior opponents, and North Texas will need multiple games to get settled into their identity. We won’t be backing the road underdog in this spot.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 29
Over 5.5 -150
Under 5.5 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
The schedule is odd. Several unwinnable games, and a bunch of soft opponents sprinkled in. We’ll take a pass for now and may re-examine over the summer.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Pro Football Hall of Famer “Mean” Joe Greene actually played his college ball at North Texas (1966–1968). Ironically, the team had already been nicknamed the “Mean Green” a couple of years before Greene became a star. His famous “Mean Joe” nickname came later during his NFL career with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Food for thought: the universe basically named the team after the guy before he became a legend. Mind blown, yo.
North Texas students have long joked that their campus squirrels are so bold the university once conducted an official “squirrel census.” While no such study ever took place, the legend persists — and KAREN wants to speak to the University president to get this abomination sorted out.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
The Mean Green had a magical season last year, and it’s too bad they couldn’t finish the assignment in the conference title game. New HC Neal Brown was an excellent hire and did some fine work with Troy in years gone by, with a bit less success at a Power 4 gig with West Virginia.
There aren’t too many teams in the entire country retooling to the extent that North Texas is this season, so Mean Green fans will need to be patient — especially considering the schedule. We give them a 50/50 shot to make a bowl game and look forward to seeing GREEN SHOOTS of growth from start to finish.
Go Mean Green!