College Football Predictions – Northern Illinois Huskies 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 8-6
ATS – 7-7
There are miracles, and then there are MIRACLES.
The Huskies get full marks for starting the conference schedule with six straight wins and booking their trip to the MAC Championship Game nice and early. Just keep in mind that they allowed more points than they scored. And they were down 29-10 to the wacky Buffalo Bulls in the title game before making an epic comeback for all the MAC marbles (W 30-29).
New HC Thomas Hammock will try and keep the winning tradition going in DeKalb.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #2
MAC – #3
Northern Illinois Huskies 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
It was an absolute disgrace last year as the Huskies managed a meager 20 PPG (#10 MAC), but hey, good things can happen for your team when you have a great defense.
The QB situation looks solid with the dual-threat signal-caller Marcus Childers back in the mix (2,175 passing yards, 6 rushing TDs LY) along with Cal transfer Ross Bowers. Whomever grabs the starting gig will have an inexperienced receiving corps to work with as the Huskies lose their top-two WRs from a season ago (Jauan Wesley, DJ Brown). The new system may help the THROW GAME, but we would be happier with more experience at WR and TE. The good news? Northern Illinois has a great stable of RBs including Tre Harbison who rushed for over 1,000 yards a season ago. The depth is also impressive. The offensive line was a major disappointment last year (43 sacks allowed) (!) but we like the fact they bring back three senior starters.
The Huskies have no choice but to improve on last year’s “offense”. We feel that the upside is limited due to the uncertainty at WR, and the fact that they must learn a new offense.
DEFENSE
That was FUN.
The Huskies bagged an amazing 50 (!!) sacks a season ago and only the WORLD CHAMPION Clemson Tigers had more (54). THAT my friends, is why we pay so much attention to ability of teams to achieve PENETRATION. You can still win a conference title with a crappy offense if you can create a lot of negative plays. #study
The pass rush takes a big hit this year with the departure of ALL-UNIVERSE defensive end Sutton Smith (15 sacks LY) who is off to the NFL (Raiders) and partner in crime DE Josh Corcoran (10 sacks LY). They still look strong on the interior of the DL and have the best LB corps in the MAC led by #1 tackler Antonio Jones-Davis (130 tackles, 14.5 TFL LY, 1st Team MAC), and Kyle Pugh who also bagged over 100 tackles whilst garnering 2nd Team MAC accolades. They probably have the best safety combo in the MAC but do need to reload at CB.
They will take a small step back on defense this year after losing the aforementioned pass-rushing monsters, but this is still the most talented defense in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
MEH. We aren’t thrilled with their prospects. They lose reliable PK Andrew Gantz and were brutal on returns in 2018 (#94 PR FBS, #123 KR).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Huskies deserve a ton of credit for almost always playing REALLY tough non-conference schedules. This year is no exception as they have three consecutive road dates (over four weeks) vs Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt. Five of their first seven games are away from home. We anticipate the season coming down to the end of year when they finish up with MAC West heavyweights (at Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Utah (September 7)
Northern Illinois has been a very reliable road underdog over the past ten years but this isn’t a spot we will be backing the Huskies. It’s their first FBS opponent and Utah promises to be flat out nasty this year.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 +110
Under 6.5 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
That looks just about right. They are legit MAC contenders, but as noted above, they will almost certainly be digging themselves out of a hole from a win-loss perspective.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The Huskies have lost six consecutive bowl games dating back to the Orange Bowl at the end of the 2012 season. They lost those games by a combined score of 232-81.
Northern Illinois has played in five “bowl games” that are now considered to be “College Division”, and therefore, not counted in their overall post-season record (4-9). Those beauties include a thrilling 21-14 victory over Missouri St in the 1963 Mineral Water Bowl, and a shocking 19-7 defeat at the hands of Evansville in the 1946 Turkey Bowl. Dazzle the CARNIVAL FREAKS at your local County Fair with those trivia nuggets.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
There’s a lot to like about this team, and some obvious concerns. They are set up well at the quarterback position and should be able to have a dominant rushing attack in conference play. They also sport the best defense in the MAC. The question becomes, how quickly can they gel under a new head coach? We like their chances to make a run for the division crown if they can escape getting destroyed by injuries during the tough non-conference slate.
Northern Illinois has been a solid bet on most occasions over the last ten years posting an overall ATS mark of 73-61-2 (54.4%). That record is even more impressive if you avoided backing them in bowl games. Heading into this year, it’s important that we reset our expectations due to the new coaching staff, and wait until they hit conference play before backing them at the windows. For what it’s worth, Northern Illinois is an UNCONSCIOUS 40-21 ATS (66%) in true road games over the past ten years.
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WEBSITE
http://niuhuskies.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
http://csnbbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=468
NEWS
http://bleacherreport.com/northern-illinois-football
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/northern-illinois-huskies
TWITTER
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