Northwestern Wildcats 2016 NCAA Football Preview
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
Big Ten Conference – West Division
2015 Record – 10-3
ATS – 8-5
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
West Division #3
Conference #5
2015 Recap
The Wildcats managed to win 10 games last season – and win 8 games ATS – all with an offense that averaged 19.5 points a game. That ranked last in the Big 10 and near the bottom of the NCAA rankings. It is great example how MEGALOCKS often equates “boring” with “cash flow”. Play great defense. Run the ball. Do not kill yourself with penalties and turnovers. That can go a long way. In fact, Northwestern had a perfect regular season other than a two-game disappearing act when they lost to Michigan and Iowa by a combined 78-10. They had no answer for Tennessee in the Outback Bowl and enter 2016 knowing that they have to be better on offense to come close to 10 wins this season.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
The offense has to be better – right? They return one of the best RB in the Big 10 in Justin Jackson and QB Clayton Thorson one way or another led the team to 10 wins as a freshman last season. That experience should serve him well in 2016. The OL should be good with four returning starters coming off a season in which they paved the way for 189 yards rushing. The huge problem once again is finding actual real options at WR. The Wildcats had nobody with over 400 yards receiving last season and have resorted to moving a couple of players from other positions (RB,DB) to see if they can get adequate production. Color us skeptical.
DEFENSE
Statistically, the last time the Wildcats had a defense like last year’s version was in 1995. HC Pat Fitzgerald was an AA LB on that squad. This year they only return six starters on defense but that does include AA LB Anthony Walker who is a beast. They will need to find replacements for their two best defensive ends (combined 12 sacks in 2015) and it will be almost impossible to replicate their performance defending the pass as they led the NCAA in passing TDs allowed (5) and were 3rd overall in pass efficiency defense. They did not face a slate of great QBs in 2015 but they played extremely well.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It is likely to be a mixed bag for the Wildcats this season on special teams. They have an excellent kick returner in Solomon Vault (26.3, 2 TD) but PK Jack Mitchell needs to be better from long range. Last year he was only 2-8 from 40+ yards.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
As much as we enjoyed finding value in Northwestern ATS last season – the way that they went 8-5 against the number is hard to do two years in a row. They were pretty much awful on offense last year and while the defense should still be very good, it is hard to see them scoring enough points this season to do damage ATS, particularly when you consider that they have a much tougher schedule. Iowa, Michigan St and Ohio St all on the road.
Overall, we give the WILDCATS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season. Northwestern featured an 8-16 (33%) ATS run before the 2015 mark of 8-5. You have to zig when they zag. They are going to be scrappy this season, but overall, this is not a team we will be interested in supporting unless they are catching points.
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