Notre Dame at Ohio St – College Football Predictions
Posted August 31, 2022
The Game
Yes, guy. You can’t go wrong with an Ohio St vs Notre Dame match-up in week 1, yo.
The Buckeyes can’t wait to get on the field after losing to their good friends from Michigan last year for the first time since the Nixon administration ** and missing out on a CFB playoff berth. Notre Dame moves on from the Brian Kelly era and former DC Marcus Freeman gets his first shot at a head coaching gig after testing things out in the Fiesta Bowl loss to Oklahoma St in 2021.
** fact check: sounds about right
The Details
Ohio St -17 Notre Dame (59)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -16.5
MEGALOCKS market consensus – Ohio St -17.4
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 38 Notre Dame 21
The Match-Up:
Ohio St offense vs Notre Dame defense
It seems overly simplistic but the game (and cover) will be decided by how polished and efficient the Ohio St THROW GAME is in game #1. Superstar QB CJ Stroud (44-6 TD to INT LY) has a loaded WR group even with the departure of two of their top three WRs and remember that RB TreVeyon Henderson caught 27 balls LY whilst also rushing for over 1,200 yards and 15 TDs (6.8). Notre Dame won’t get ripped to shreds as they have a decent secondary, and it can’t hurt to have had a bunch of time for Freeman to get a game plan together. We’ll call for the Buckeyes to get into at least the mid 30s but we don’t see a FITTY BURGER getting served up.
Notre Dame offense vs Ohio St defense
It’s hard to see the Irish being able to do much damage in this game as they have an unproven starting QB, lose a 1,000-yard RB in K Williams (42 receptions), and will be without their top-two WRs from 2021 (graduation, injury). Ohio St’s D was nothing special to say the least last season but they’ve made a yuuuge upgrade at DC in bagging Okla St genius Jim Knowles. It’s hard to say what kind of impact he’ll have in week one so we’ll have to see how it plays out. It’s not impossible, but Notre Dame will have to find a way to grind out some drives and be efficient on 3rd downs. They can’t let it get out of hand early as they won’t be able to throw their way back into this BAD BOY.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Ohio St has only lost two home games since 2017…..One to the Sooners and our boy Baker Mayfield….and last year to the mighty Oregon Ducks…..Ryan Day is 34-4 overall as Ohio St’s HC….Weather looks fine as we approach press time….slight chance of rain in the evening.
Summary
The spread has gone all FREAKY FREAKY steaming from the 10.5 range at open all the way up to 17/17.5. We’re not crazy about laying this kinda chalk vs the Irish but these are the type of match-ups that Notre Dame has had trouble with……taking on ELITE TEAMS….especially those that have potent THROW GAMES.
IF you like the Irish we’d recommend playing them +10 for the first half and hope they can keep it close for 30 minutes. Our preferred betting option is to take the home team for the full game in what should be a statement win for the Buckeyes. Not a HOT TAKE, but there you go.
Conclusion
Lean: Ohio St -17
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.