Notre Dame at Virginia Tech – College Football Predictions
The Game
Notre Dame continues their quest for the college football playoff when they visit Virginia Tech on Saturday night. It’s one of the few venues that CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY has a valid point. Notre Dame is looking really good right now and they know this might be their toughest remaining game of the season (at USC?). Virginia Tech SHOCKED the WORLD with a road win over Duke last week (ya, we just said that, yo) and just might be a SURPRISE PACKAGE in the ACC before it’s all said and done.
What’s likely to happen in this match-up? Let’s dig in.
The Details
Notre Dame -6.5 Virginia Tech (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Notre Dame -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Notre Dame 31.5 Virginia Tech 25
The Match-Up:
Notre Dame offense vs Virginia Tech defense
“I love it when a plan comes together.” <John “Hannibal” Smith> <The A-Team>
The Irish offense is looking REALLY sharp with QB Ian Book under center (74%, 7-0 TD to INT), although to be fair, he lit up the Wake Forest defense (pure filth) and the apparently weak Stanford secondary. The weapons in the passing game are coming around with a solid group of WRs led by Miles Boykin (311, 15.6) and a TE (Alize Mack) that has to be respected. If you didn’t notice, the plan is REALLY starting to come together with the addition of RB Dexter Williams who returned from suspension last week to rip up Stanford for 161 yards (7.4 YPC). The Virginia Tech defense has looked sharp in all but one game but that game was a doozy as they gave up 632 yards to Old Dominion. The vast majority of that damage came through the air and it seems like the Irish will be well positioned to carve their way down the field in the passing game. The Hokies are #4 in the ACC in sacks per game (3.0) and will have to dial up some pressure and see what Book can do when not facing a bunch of stiffs on defense. The Irish also have QB Wimbush available for running situations should they choose to go that route. VT is going to have their hands full keeping Notre Dame under their implied team total (31.5). The best scenario is to find a way to get an early lead and let the D pin their ears back and feed off momentum.
Virginia Tech offense vs Notre Dame defense
Kansas transfer Ryan Willis stepped in at QB last week and did a great job leading the Hokies to a big road win over the feisty Blue Devils. Virginia Tech has some underrated weapons in the passing game and just might be able to do more damage with Willis at the controls. WR Damon Hazelton is averaging 23.2 YPC and has combined with fellow wideout Eric Kumah to bag 5 TD receptions. As a team the Hokies are averaging 16.7 yards per reception and they have a nice committee of RBs that are averaging 5.5, 4.8 and 7.7 yards per carry. The Irish showed that they can give up passing yards to a decent passing team (Vandy) but their DL is really good and they have been good limiting the damage so far once teams get in the red zone. The Hokies have the ability to stay balanced and move the ball but will need to make the most of the opportunities they get and hope that Willis can follow-up with another solid effort.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Virginia Tech visited Notre Dame in 2016 and won an entertaining game by a score of 34-31……Irish HC Brian Kelly has a losing record ATS as a road favorite…..VT is rarely a home dog (4-4 ATS L10Y)……You know how ridiculous we think playing college teasers are……Well it may be even more nuts for this game because Virginia Tech has had some big time variance compared to the point spread so far…..+28 in a win over Florida St….-42 (!) in a loss to Old Dominion…..and then OFF THE TOP ROPE +21 in the win over Duke.
Summary
Notre Dame is rock solid. This is a tough place to bag a win but if they execute and play close to their best it should result in a win. The problem? Last year they got their teeth kicked in on the road in Miami and did not look prepared at all for that big game. They lost by 18 on the road a few weeks later vs Stanford. This is a different season and a new squad. They just have to avoid giving Virginia Tech momentum early in the game. As far as the point-spread goes, we think the Irish may be getting a bit too much respect and may have to look at taking the underdog for small potatoes if a +7 becomes available on Saturday. It’s hard to have a strong opinion on VT based on how well Notre Dame is playing AND they appear to be peaking at the moment.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Side: Slight lean to VT at +7 if it gets there. Otherwise will take a pass.
Total: Lean to the first half under. We anticipate a conservative start for ND and an inspired early performance from the VT defense.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.