Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 10-3

ATS – 8-5

Not a bad run.

Notre Dame took on a heck of a schedule and still managed to bag 10 wins. Their only losses were a one-point home loss vs Georgia and a pair of road defeats vs solid Miami and Stanford squads. They also pulled off a comeback win in the Citrus Bowl when backup QB Ian Book threw a TD pass with under two minutes remaining.

It’s another tough schedule to deal with this season. Do they have a team that can successfully navigate this docket and make the playoff?

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Independents – #1

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

QB Brandon Wimbush has proven himself to be an explosive runner (14 rushing TDs LY) but he needs to improve his accuracy in order for this offense to hum. Wimbush had a decent TD to INT ratio (16-6) but completed less than 50% of his attempts and struggled against the better defenses on their schedule. It’s unclear what kind of targets are at his disposal after the departure of #1 WR Equanimeous St Brown to the NFL (Green Bay). They have some good size in the WR unit and TE Alize Mack has potential (although so far, unrealized).

The Irish will have to move on without their excellent RB Josh Adams (1,430 yards LY) and also lose their #2 rusher in Deon McIntosh (5.7 YPC, 5 TD). There are a couple of highly recruited and talented backs on the roster (Dexter Williams, Tony Jones) but it remains to be seen if they can be an effective 1-2 punch. This is especially true given that they lose a pair of #1 NFL DC on the offensive line to the NFL.

DEFENSE

Things look pretty good on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame returns 9 starters to a defense that allowed 21.5 points per game while playing a really tough schedule. The front seven is stout with 3/4 returning starters on the line including excellent DT Jerry Tillery (9 TFL, 11 QBH) and a strong LB corps headed by Te’von Coney (leading tackler LY, 13 TFL). The secondary will not take a back seat with three returning starters and the addition of Navy transfer Alohi Gilman to the mix. CB Julian Love was 2nd in the FBS with 20 PBU last year.

Our NOTRE DAME INSIDERS predict their best statistical performance since the 2012 team that allowed just 12.8 points per game (LY – 21.5).

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Irish are set at PK with Justin Yoon returning for one more season (14/18 LY). The other aspects of the special teams group were average last season. Not an overwhelming group on paper.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It is not as devastating as last season but it still packs a punch. There are only four true road games but two of those are at Virginia Tech and USC.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Syracuse (November 17). This contest falls between a big home date with Florida St and a road trip to USC. The situation gets extra dicey if the season has nothing left at this point other than a medium-level bowl game.

Season Win Total

Over 9.5 +115

Under 9.5 -135

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean under as we go to press. If they lose to Michigan in week one it is really hard to see them getting to 10 wins. If they win that game, there are still plenty of land mines.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Notre Dame has the 3rd highest win% of any program with 600+ wins (.724). Michigan comes in at .729 and Ohio St has banked .725.

Lou Holtz is awesome.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the FIGHTING IRISH a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.

Boy, it gets real in week one. The Irish have to face the Wolverines but at least they get them at home. There are plenty more tough outs on the schedule including USC, Florida St, Virginia Tech and Stanford. The offense has potential but they are without two outstanding OL from last year, as well as their #1 rusher and #1 receiver. The Wimbush/Book combo appears solid at QB but is that enough to drive a “public” team to ATS glory? At least the defense should be nasty.

Brian Kelly has a 46-47-3 record vs the point spread during his tenure at Notre Dame. Given the new pieces on offense, the tough schedule and the average special teams, it follows that a neutral stance is appropriate to start the season.

Want more Notre Dame football ?

WEBSITE

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FORUM

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NEWS

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