Ohio St at Penn St – College Football Predictions
The Game
Whoa, Nellie!
We should be in for a treat on Saturday night when the Buckeyes visit Penn St. Both teams have looked superb so far and are a combined 8-0. Penn St squeaked by Appalachian St in OT and then dismantled three questionable opponents. Ohio St beat a good TCU team but that is the only impressive win on their resume. Who emerges as the temporary favorite in the tough Big 10 East after this clash? Let’s dig in, yo.
The Details
Ohio St -3.5 Penn St (70.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 37 Penn St 33.5
The Match-Up:
Ohio St offense vs Penn St defense
Wow. QB Dwayne Haskins has been on SUPAH HOT FIRE so far completing 76% of his passes with an amazing 16-1 TD to INT ratio (10.4 / attempt). Haskins has done a great job of spreading out the ball when he MATRICULATES down the field in the passing game as 5 players have 145+ receiving yards. The running game has been ok (10 rushing TDs) but is only averaging 5.4 YPC. The last time they averaged less than that over the course of a season was back in 2012 (5.4). It’s early, but on the other hand, they have played three cream puffs already. Penn St has been ok on defense and has had no apparent reason to be better given the performance of their offense (more on that below). They are #2 in the Big Ten in sacks (14) but have been gashed a bit on the ground (#82 FBS run defense). It seems to us that if Ohio St can move the ball on the ground and bag 180-200+ rushing yards they will win and cover this game. Penn St gave up 245 yards on the ground to Pitt and that includes the sack yardage (4). Penn St was also exposed by the only decent QB they have faced (App St). We think Ohio St breezes into the 30s
Penn St offense vs Ohio St defense
Penn St QB Trace McSorley has had a great career and is capable of getting this team to the Big Ten Championship (and beyond) if they win this game. McSorley has only completed 54% of his passes after completing 66.5% last season and will need to be at his best in this game. Something in the 54% range is not going to get the win. Ohio St is #1 in the Big 10 in sacks (16) but will be without star DE Nick Bosa for this game. TCU has some success running ball against Ohio St including hitting a 90+ yard TD. Oregon St (!) had two monster TD runs. RB Miles Sanders has been fantastic in the early going averaging 7.0 YPC and is well on his way to a 1,000 yard campaign. Twelve different players have caught a pass for Penn St but nobody has more than 170 yards receiving. The game plan will be a balanced attack and move the chains. The Nittany Lions have a mind-blowing 20 rushing TDs already and it’s hard to see Ohio St slowing down the running game in a meaningful fashion.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The last two meetings have been really close with Ohio St winning 39-38 last season and the Nittany Lions emerging victorious in 2016 (24-21)……Penn St is 1/3 on field goals this season….File that away for later.
Summary
Clear your schedule. This is going to be fun. Both teams have been overwhelming on offense and underwhelming on defense. Ohio St can at least boast a notch in the bedpost with a win over TCU. Then again, Penn St hasn’t lost a game at home since 2015 (Michigan). Despite being a PUBLIC REVERSE TRAP DOUBLE TRAP LINE MOVE game according to many prognosticators, Ohio St is still the KING of the Big 10 East until proven otherwise.
Conclusion
Official play: Ohio St -3 -115
Total: Slight lean to the under. 70 seems rich.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.