Ohio St Buckeyes 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Ohio St Buckeyes 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 12-2

ATS – 8-6

“Surely you can’t be serious?” <Ted Striker>

“I am serious. And don’t call me Shirley.” <Dr Rumack>

This classic line from the movie Airplane! is appropriate in this context. Ohio St finished up with a record of 12-2 and have won 11+ games in six consecutive seasons. Surely you can’t be serious?

While it is true that they got taken behind the WOODSHED by Iowa, the Buckeyes still managed to win the Big 10 Championship with a victory over Wisconsin. It’s going to be strange to see Ohio St take the field without QB JT Barrett, but a new quarterback era must begin in Columbus. Do they have the MINERALS to make another trip to the Big 10 Title game? Let’s dig in.

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

East Division – #1

Big 10 – #1

Ohio St Buckeyes 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

This could get ugly.

The Buckeyes look loaded even with a new QB (Dwayne Haskins) leading the offense after the departure of eight-year starter (just kidding. not really?) JT Barrett. Haskins led the comeback vs Michigan and gets to lead a truly potent offense in 2018. RB JK Dobbins is a legitimate Heisman contender (2017 – 1,403, 7.2, 7 TD; 22 receptions) and Mike Weber averaged over 6 yards per carry last season whilst bagging 10 rushing touchdowns. Overall, the Buckeyes bring back the top-six in terms of receiving yards from the 2017 offense and the WR corps might be the best in the Big 10. The offensive line looks solid even with the departure of their outstanding C Billy Price.

Ohio St averaged 41 points and 506 yards per contest in 2017. They figure to be just as devastating this season.

DEFENSE

The Ohio St defense has held opponents to under 20 points per game in each of the last three seasons (19.0, 15.5, 15.1) but will have a challenge ahead of them in 2018 with a young defense that only returns five starters. In fact, it may be the case that there are no senior starters. The good news is that the Buckeyes recruit as well as anyone and have a ton of raw talent.

The defensive line suffered some attrition but still boast one of the best players in college football in Nick Bosa (1st Team AA) who bagged 8.5 sacks and 16 TFL in 2017. The Buckeyes return just one starter at linebacker and two RS in the secondary, but as noted earlier, the talent level is serious. The question becomes; How quickly can this defense gel into a National Championship-worthy unit? Ohio St returned just three starters to the mix in 2016 and still managed to allow an impressive 15.5 points per contest (#3 FBS) so we need to respect the ability of these guys to dominate no matter who they put on the field. Our Ohio St INSIDERS anticipate another year of allowing less than 20 points per game despite the relative inexperience.

SPECIAL TEAMS

There is full continuity at hand and the Buckeyes should be extremely confident in their special teams. P Drue Chrisman was 1st Team Big 10 and PK Sean Nuernberger connected on 17/21 FG attempts (1/4 from 40+ yards).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – We want nothing to do with JINXING anyone, but the schedule looks really manageable considering that they play in the GROUP OF DEATH (Big 10 East). Playing TCU is not a horror show and Penn St is probably down a notch this season. Two of their last three games are vs Michigan St and Michigan but they get the Wolverines at home. We don’t see a “2017 Oklahoma” on the docket.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – TULANE (September 22). This match-up is sandwiched between games with TCU and Penn St. Ohio St will probably be laying 30+ points and that will be a lot vs a scrappy Tulane squad. Not saying. Just saying.

Season Win Total

Over 10.5 -120

Under 10.5 +100

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the over. It’s hard to bank on these guys losing more than one game during the regular season. There are some tough games in here but also a lot of free squares.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The only former assistant to defeat Urban Meyer was Dan Mullen back in 2010 (Mississippi St).

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the BUCKEYES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.

The Buckeyes should prove to be devastating on offense, and we have a feeling that the defense will be more than fine. We find it truly impressive that Ohio St has a record of 44-37 (54.3%) against the point spread under HC Urban Meyer despite the fact that they are laying big numbers so often. Their worst ATS mark over that time horizon is 6-7.

It’s hard to project any worse than an average mark vs the number in 2018. We would look to play on these guys in their “big games” and use caution when laying enormous numbers.

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