Oklahoma at Oklahoma St
Posted November 2
The Game
It’s BEDLAM TIME, yo.
Oklahoma is off to the SEC next year and this is the last edition of the BEDLAM rivalry as we know it. Oklahoma St is one of the hottest teams in the country right now having won four straight games (6-2) and playing great whilst the Sooners lost their first game of the season last week on the road at Kansas. Both teams are part of a five-way (!) tie stop the Big 12 standings.
Let’s goooo!
The Details
Oklahoma -6 Oklahoma St (61)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oklahoma -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 33.5 Oklahoma St 27.5
Oklahoma offense vs Oklahoma St defense
The Sooners are a potent bunch on offense behind QB Dillon Gabriel (71%, 17-4 TD to INT) and they rank #7 in the nation in total offense, #33 rushing, and #11 passing. The bad news is that the offense has started to look a bit limited since the win over Texas, due in large part to the loss of WR A Anthony, and the sudden overall lack of explosiveness. They only attempted a few downfield throws during the entire game vs Kansas even when a comeback was needed so it makes you wonder if Gabriel is 100%. Overall, it just doesn’t seem like they have “dudes” at RB or WR like in previous seasons. Oklahoma’s St defense is pretty weak overall but they’ve played better during the current winning streak allowing just 21 points to Kansas St and 13 to Cincinnati.
Oklahoma St offense vs Oklahoma defense
The Pokes have been moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE in the last four games after Alan Bowman took over full-time at QB, but most importantly, they have been getting INSANE production from RB Ollie Gordon. Mr Gordon has rushed for 271/282/168/136/121 L5G and they passing attack has done enough to keep things balanced. The Sooners defense is falling apart right before our eyes and they’ve allowed 38/29/30 L3G after yielding just 0/11/17/6/20 in their previous five contests. The Sooners are also lacking “dudes” on the defensive side of the football and they’re gonna have problems with the potent Oklahoma St offense.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The level of PURE HATRED between the two programs has reached unseen levels given the imminent departure of Oklahoma to the SEC…..Oklahoma St should be very motivated to send them off with a loss…..Can they do it?…..The weather forecast looks perfect as we approach press time…..Oklahoma is 14-5-1 ATS L20 vs Oklahoma St……The intrepid Marc Lawrence reminds us that Oklahoma St is on an 8-0 ATS run as a home dog of less than 14 points.
Summary
Oklahoma is fading and this doesn’t appear to be a “get right” spot. They got past Texas (+3 in turnovers) but allowed the Longhorns to gain over 500Y, they squeaked past UCF by two points, and then lost to Kansas over the L3G. Oklahoma St is playing their best football and we expect a one-score game.
Conclusion
Official play – Oklahoma St +6 -108 <sent 12:37pm Nov 2>
Note from Week 9 Boxscore and Wagering review……..
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this season. 7-18-1 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are now 65-39 (62.5%). In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned a number of weeks back, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
‘Official play’ implies this pick is one of our favorites of the week (perceived value, match-up, coaching, trends, etc.). We’re currently playing these picks for the same amount as the leans but it’s up to you how you want to manage your bankroll. Please see the Week in Review posts for more detail.
‘Lean’ implies we are placing a wager on the game.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t have any action on the game.
Team totals – We list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release.