Oklahoma at TCU – College Football Predictions
The Game
When we last saw the Sooners in action they were playing another classic with Texas (L 48-45). Now they are off a bye and sporting a new DC. They are very much alive in the race to get to the Big 12 Championship Game but don’t have much margin for error. TCU is technically still part of the race but two conference losses at this point makes them an outsider. Can they step their game up and upset Oklahoma this week?
The Details
Oklahoma -8 TCU (61)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oklahoma -7
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 34.5 TCU 26.5
The Match-Up:
Oklahoma offense vs TCU defense
QB Kyler Murray has been fantastic this season and almost led an incredible comeback vs the Longhorns. Murray has a great 21-3 TD to INT ratio to go along with five scores on the ground. The rushing attack misses star Rodney Anderson and will need Trey Sermon (5.4 YPC) and crew to pick up the slack. The Sooners possess a DEVASTATING pair of WRs in Marquise Brown and Ceedee Lamb who have combined for well over 1,000 yards receiving. The interesting factoid to present is that the Sooners have just two players with more than 10 receptions. Can TCU find a way to limit the big plays to those two great wideouts and slow things down? The Horned Frogs are still #1 in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed, #3 in run defense and #1 in pass efficiency defense. In essence, they are their usual stingy selves. If the offense can stop puking all over themselves and putting the D in bad spots it’s not inconceivable to see TCU hold Oklahoma to less than 30 points and THAT would give them a shot at the upset. <grabs popcorn>
TCU offense vs Oklahoma defense
The Horned Frogs have had a hard time getting things rolling on offense. Mistakes, mistakes, mistakes. QB Shawn Robinson has thrown 8 picks (9 TD) and overall TCU has turned the ball over 15 (!) times in six games. They are (-9) in turnover margin and anyone can see that going (-1.5) on average in the turnover department is going to make it REALLY tough to win games. We would like to see a bit more out of the run game and the Sooners’ defense will give them that opportunity. TCU has a pair of good receivers (Reagor, Turpin) that can do some damage but Robinson has to stop throwing to the wrong team. Not sure what impact the change in DC will have for Oklahoma but we are certain that the plays will be there to be made. Can TCU play a clean game?
Trends, Intangibles and More!
TCU has been a home dog just six times in the past 10 seasons (2-4 ATS)….Oklahoma took care of the Horned Frogs twice last season but neither of those games were in Fort Worth.
Summary
It’s always tempting to sign-up with TCU when they are catching points. We just have to ask the question, are they playing well enough on offense to keep this game close? As noted earlier, it’s hard to be competitive when you are consistently losing the turnover battle. If they make things easy for Oklahoma the game has the potential to get away from them in a hurry.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Lean to Oklahoma.
Total: No leanage.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.