Oklahoma Sooners 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Oklahoma Sooners 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 12-2

ATS – 9-5

Now THAT was fun to watch.

Of course, we are speaking about one of the most exciting and entertaining college football games played in recent history. The Rose Bowl did not end the way that Sooners’ fans had hoped but there is no disgrace in losing in 2-OT to a team that almost (should have?) won the National Championship. And they still won the Big 12 Title.

Can they make another playoff run without all-UNIVERSE QB Baker Mayfield?

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Big 12 – #2

Oklahoma Sooners 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

You don’t get better by losing a Heisman Trophy winning QB (Congrats MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB members) but the hope is that a mobile and dangerous Kyler Murray can do an excellent job. The Sooners’ offense has been comically devastating under the direction of Lincoln Riley and they were the #1 offense in college football last year (580 YPG).

The offense will be potent again with the return of star RB Rodney Anderson who tallied over 1,100 yards rushing and 18 TDs (13 rushing, 5 receiving). There is a lot of depth behind him leaving no doubt that the Sooner ground game will be excellent. The offensive line loses LT Orlando Brown (NFL – Ravens) and C Erick Wren but are still stocked with talent. The word on the street is to expect another really good Oklahoma offensive line. When Murray chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game he can look to 1,000-yard receiver Marquise Brown and WR Ceedee Lamb (17.5 YPR). They will definitely miss their rock at TE Mark Andrews who is also off to the NFL (Ravens).

The numbers will be down this season (they have to be down – amirite?) but we still anticipate an explosive offense that will average 40 PPG.

DEFENSE

The Sooners’ defense ranked 4th and 5th in the Big 12 the past two seasons. It’s been a while since they have been a top-notch unit. This year they lose a lot of experience (only two of the top six tacklers are back) and their best player and AA DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (17.5 TFL, 6 QBH) is now part of the Rams organization. They return six starters to the mix and still have a lot of highly-recruited specimens on the depth chart. MLB Kenneth Murray is an emerging star and he is just a sophomore. The CB situation looks good.

Oklahoma allowed 27.1 and 28.8 PPG the past two seasons. They should be able to improve a bit in scoring defense but the upside appears limited unless dangerous pass rushers emerge.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Oklahoma has reliable Austin Seibert to handle FG duties (17/21 LY) as well as the punting chores (37.9 net LY). The return units could use some additional spice. Neutral view on the group.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The Big 12 is a deep league. The out-of-conference schedule should be no problem as they get FAU, UCLA and Army at home. There is no Ohio St on the schedule like the past two years. Overall we think the dance card is favorable and they only have four true road games.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – None worth noting as we approach press time.

Season Win Total

Over 10 -125

Under 10 -105

MEGALOCKS says:

Ten wins seems about right. There are enough questions on the team to make us hesitate on taking the over. The under is also a tough sell because it’s hard (but not impossible) to see them losing three games. Parking the bus on this one for now.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Sooners have the longest winning streak in NCAA Division 1 college football history (47 games) (1953-1957).

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the SOONERS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.

Oklahoma moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last year. We liked the team on paper but did not think they would be able to achieve a winning record vs the point spread. Oops. They covered a lot of big numbers thanks to a historical season from our boy Baker Mayfield.

The Sooners are an impressive 25-15 ATS (62.5%) over the past three seasons despite being an entertaining and public team. We believe you should use a bit more caution than normal when backing Oklahoma this year as the Big 12 has some talented teams, and they will be laying yuuuuge numbers on many occasions. With more focus on the ground attack it may be more challenging to rip teams completely to pieces.

They are still one of the favorites to take down the Big 12. Boomer Sooner.

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WEBSITE

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