College Football Predictions – Oklahoma Sooners 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 12-2
ATS – 6-7-1
That was fun to watch. Again.
The Sooners ripped through the competition for the majority of the season and posted their 8th double-digit win campaign in the past nine years. They lost the Red River Rivalry game to Texas in an instant classic (48-45 Texas) but got appropriate revenge in the Big 12 Championship when they disposed of the Longhorns en route to the College Football Playoff. They needed a wake-up call vs ROLL TIDE in the Orange Bowl as they fell behind 28-ZIP early, only to mount a furious rally that came up short.
Can the Sooners make yet another playoff appearance this season?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #1
Oklahoma Sooners 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Oklahoma moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE a season ago and led the FBS in scoring offense (48.4 PPG) (!) and total offense (570 YPG). As you are well aware, they booked another Heisman Trophy at QB with the electric Kyler Murray leading the way. Murray is off to the NFL (Cardinals) and the Sooners bring in……..former ROLL TIDE QB Jalen Hurts who has posted a 24-2 win-loss record as a starting QB whilst posting a fine 48-12 TD to INT mark. Hurts is not in the same league when it comes to passing as his predecessors but he is more than capable of putting up big numbers in this offense. And he is a great leader on and off the gridiron.
There are a bevy of weapons at Hurts’ disposal, even with the departure of star WR Marquise Brown to the NFL (#1 DC Ravens). CeeDee Lamb is a lethal target (1,158, 17.8, 11 TD LY) and the receiving group is stocked with young talent. Keep an eye on WR Lee Morris who averaged over 21 yards per reception a season ago. Grant Calcaterra is one of the most dangerous receiving threats at TE in college football and how about those running backs? This just might be the best 1-2 punch around. Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon combined for over 2,000 yards rushing and 25 TDs (!) last year AND Brooks averaged an eye-popping 8.9 YPC. WHOA NELLIE. The biggest (only?) concern on offense is a line that lost FOUR starters to the NFL. The OL is talented and well-coached but it’s hard to imagine Oklahoma having the same level of production this year.
The output will be down a notch this season BUT this is still one of the most devastating offenses in college football.
DEFENSE
The Sooners were awful on defense last year by almost any relevant measure. They finished up last in the Big 12 in scoring defense (33.3) (yup, worse than Kansas and Baylor) and total defense (454 YPG). They struggled getting PENETRATION (#7 Big 12 TFL per game) and only forced 11 (!!) turnovers in 14 games.
New DC Alex Grinch has some solid pedigree having worked with Ohio St and Washington St recently, and he has eight returning starters to work with this year. Yes, that means a lot of the guys from last season’s disappointing stop unit are back but they have experience and will be well coached. The DL looks improved and star LB Kenneth Murray (1st Team Big 12) led the team in tackles (155) (T2 FBS) and TFL (12.5) a season ago. The Sooners have a lot of experience in the secondary BUT keep in mind that they had a HORRIFIC 28-6 TD to INT ratio last year and finished dead last (sense a pattern?) in Big 12 pass efficiency defense.
We look for the defense to be improved but it’s unfair to expect more than a mid-pack Big 12 performance.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The return game should be excellent once again with both of their starters back for duty. There is no doubt they will miss their reliable P and PK Austin Seibert who has taken his talents to the NFL (Browns). Keep an eye on that kicking game.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The out-of-conference docket should be smooth sailing. Houston, South Dakota, and UCLA will all provide some resistance but these are games that the Sooners should win in comfortable fashion. The Big 12 slate looks good as the majority of their tough games are at home or on a neutral site (Texas).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Kansas (October 5th)
They will be laying a ton of points, Kansas might be improved, and Texas is on deck. Oklahoma has lost OUTRIGHT in two of the last five seasons the week prior to the Red River Rivalry (Iowa St, TCU). They aren’t losing this game but it’s not an ideal spot to be laying 30+ points (?).
Season Win Total
Over 10.5 -115
Under 10.5 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
That feels like the right number. It’s hard to see these guys losing twice BUT that defense………..
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Red River Shootout. Red River Rivalry. Red River Showdown. RED ROVER RED ROVER. We don’t care what they call it. We LOVE it.
The Oklahoma QB in the first ever Big 12 overtime game was none other than Virginia Tech HC Justin Fuente. The Sooners won the game by a score of 30-27. Impress the LOCAL HOTTIES with that little taste of trivia.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
GET CHO POPCONE! There promises to be more exciting Oklahoma football on the way. It’s almost impossible to think that we could be in for a third straight Heisman Trophy being awarded to a Sooners’ QB. Right? We can’t underestimate the ability of HC Lincoln Riley to get the offense humming again. The question becomes: can DC Alex Grinch get these guys to play at least ‘average’ defense? That would go a long way to helping Oklahoma get back to the College Football Playoff. That’s a reasonable goal. They are loaded with talent.
The Sooners have done a decent job ATS over the past 10 years (53.4%) when you consider that they are usually the favorites and often laying a ton of points. Lincoln Riley has a 15-12-1 mark vs the point spread during his two years in Norman and we can see another .500 or better record vs Vegas this year.
Neutral to slightly-positive overall ATS view keeping in mind the uncertainty on defense, the introduction of a new QB, and high market expectations.
Want more Oklahoma football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.soonersports.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=127245&SPSID=750323&DB_OEM_ID=31000
FORUM
https://247sports.com/college/oklahoma/Board/FootballRecruiting-103683/
http://www.soonertimesbb.com/forums/view_forum.php?id=2
http://www.soonerfans.com/forum/index.php?forums/sooner-football.2/
https://oklahoma.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-crimson-corner.12/
NEWS
http://www.crimsonandcreammachine.com/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/201/oklahoma-sooners
http://bleacherreport.com/oklahoma-sooners-football
http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/oklahoma-sooners
Hashtags – #OUDNA, #Sooners
Accounts to follow
https://twitter.com/OU_Football