Oklahoma Sooners 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 21, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 7-5-1
The Sooners started the year playing like WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE as they took down Texas and UCF in dramatic fashion to move to 7-0. The season blew up in a few short weeks as they were upset in back-to-back games by Kansas and Oklahoma St. Oklahoma won the final three games of the regular season but missed out on a shot to play for a Big 12 Championship, and that ultimately makes the 2023 season a disappointment.
Oklahoma moves to the mighty SEC in 2024. Do they have the MINERALS to compete in year one?
Oklahoma Sooners 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Sooners moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last year (507 YPG, #3 FBS) behind star QB Dillon Gabriel but they’ll be rolling with a new signal-caller this season in Jackson Arnold who had a cup of coffee with the team in 2023 (64%, 4-3 TD to INT). Arnold has some fine weaponry at his disposal, particularly at the WR position where they’re extremely deep despite losing #1 WR Drake Stoops. Keep your eye on WR Nic Anderson who averaged an impossible 21 YPC LY (798, 10 TD), Jalil Farooq (694, 15.4, 2 TD) and Purdue transfer Deion Burks who led the Boilermakers in receptions and receiving yards LY (629, 7 TD). We really like #1 RB Gavin Sawchuk who’s a big play waiting to happen (744, 6.2, 9 TD) and the depth behind him looks pretty good. The big question mark on this side of the football is an offensive line that needs to be completely rebuilt. The Sooners did a good job in the portal and they’ve got well over 100 career starts in the unit, but you have to wonder how long it will take to gel, or if the assembled talent is any good. <grabs popcorn>
DEFENSE
Oklahoma made yuuuge strides on defense LY as they allowed 23.5 PPG (30.0 in 2022) and 390 YPG (461). We like what we see on defense this year as they retain eight starters and their top-six tacklers from the 2023 defense. The DL is a deep group and they made a pair of sweet additions in DT Damonic Williams (TCU) and DE Caiden Woullard (Miami Ohio, 13.5 sacks L2Y). The LB group is one of the best in the SEC and it’s led by 3rd Team AA Danny Stutsman who led the team in tackles and TFL LY (104, 16). Everyone is back from last season’s group and you know that HC Brent Venables can get the most out of a LB corps. The Sooners were sneaky-good defending the pass LY (#18 FBS pass efficiency D, 18-20 TD to INT) and they retain three starters including ace safety Billy Bowman who earned 1st Team Big 12 status in 2023 (6 INT). The Sooners have a decent stop unit that’ll hold its own in the SEC this year but they do face a few potent offenses that’ll give everyone trouble.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Sooners don’t have anyone that stands out but it’s important to note that all the key pieces return this year so there’s reason to anticipate some improvement. It’ll be interesting to see if transfer Tyler Keltner (Florida St, ETSU) wins the PK job as he’s got a pretty good resume (career 56/74 FG, 131/131 XP).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule is a walk in the park with the toughest game being a home meeting with Tulane. The SEC docket is nasty and their last four conference games are at Ole Miss, at Missouri, ROLL TIDE, and at LSU. Oh ya, and they have the RED RIVER SHOOTOUT ** with Texas.
** Hey, Karen. Look, guns! PEW PEW PEW……RAT A TAT TAT, RAT A TAT TAT. Yippee!
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – South Carolina (Oct 19)
This might be a bit of a sleepy spot given that it follows the match-up with Texas and precedes the road trip to Ole Miss. Shane Beamer and the COCKS haven’t been great on the road recently but we won’t be keen on laying a ton of points in this game.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 21
Over 7.5 -120
Under 7.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
Oklahoma is another one of those teams that you feel really good about until you look at the schedule. They’re talented enough to hit the ‘over’ but it won’t be easy.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Oklahoma has only lost eight home games over the L10Y (6-0 in 2023).
The Sooners have done a good job ATS as a home favorite over the L10Y (36-24, 60%) but they’ve been a poor bet when favored on the road (17-21-2, 45%, 1-3-1 in 2023).
It wasn’t too long ago that Oklahoma had back-to-back Heisman Trophy winners in Baker Mayfield (2017) and Kyler Murray (2018).
Only one head coach in Oklahoma history has had a losing record since the days of your boy Gomer Jones in the 1960s (9-11-1). The John Blake era gives most Sooners fans nightmares ** as he was an impossible 12-22 with Oklahoma from 1996-1998.
** worse than watching six hours of Disney+ programming
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
WHOA, NELLIE
We can’t wait to see how these guys adapt to the SEC. It’s hard to envision Oklahoma competing for the crown in year one as the schedule is really challenging, particularly in November. The offense has a fine collection of goodies at WR/RB/TE but there’s uncertainty around the quarterback position and the offensive line. We’ll call for seven or eight wins and don’t think they’ll be overmatched in conference action provided they can avoid a nasty bite from the injury bug.
BOOMER SOONER!