Oklahoma St Cowboys 2016 NCAA Football Preview
OKLAHOMA ST COWBOYS
Big 12 Conference
2015 Record – 10-3
ATS – 5-7-1
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
Big 12 Conference #4
2015 Recap
Remember when Oklahoma St started out 10-0 last season? That seems like ages ago – but they did have a really nice run. The Cowboys then proceeded to lose their next 3 games and give up over 150 points in the process. It is no disgrace to lose to Baylor, Oklahoma and Ole Miss – but after losing to Baylor it seemed like the fire was all gone.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Mason Rudolph returns at QB and he was 3rd in Big 12 in passing efficiency last season while throwing for over 3,700 yards and 21 TD. The Cowboys will miss JW Walsh who provided the running threat and had a remarkable 13-1 TD to interception ratio. They are loaded at WR and should put up big numbers as a unit in 2016. James Washington had 1,087 yards and 10 TDs while averaging over 20 yards a catch. The running game was poor for the 2nd straight season (137, 127 yards per game; 9th in Big 12 in 2015) but get transfer Barry Sanders as a graduate transfer from Stanford to try to add a spark.
JUGGERNAUT ALERT – The OFFENSIVE LINE gets the call. The entire starting unit returns this season and they have the potential to make this offense one of the most powerful in the FBS.
DEFENSE
The Cowboys were 6th in the NCAA in sacks per game last season but that is about all that they did well. They gave up over 30 points a game and were equally mediocre defending the run and the pass. They return 7 starters this season including three players in the secondary but we are worried about losing their top two sack leaders from 2015 including 2nd round NFL draft pick Emmanuel Ogbah (13 sacks, 19 QB hurries – 2nd most on team was 3). Overall, we are skeptical that the Cowboys will be able to hold opponents below 30 points per game.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Oklahoma St looks to be adequate in this department. PK Ben Grogan was 16-20 on FGs and both return men are back, however, they did only rank 87th in punt returns and 76th in kickoff returns last season.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
The Cowboys have a shot at another red-hot start. Five of their first six games are at home where they have won 81% of their games the last five seasons (26-6). Their road game at Baylor at the end of September looks a lot more manageable now given the turmoil the Bears’ football program has faced during the offseason.
Long-time MEGALOCKS readers know that we have a ton of respect for HC Mike Gundy. 90 wins in the last 10 seasons. The Cowboys also have a truly remarkable 59% ATS win rate in ALL games since 2006 regardless of whether the game was played at home, on the road or on another planet. Experienced handicappers know that is a pretty amazing record that indicates Gundy consistently gets the Cowboys to exceed expectations.
Overall, we give the COWBOYS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season. The problem we have with a full endorsement from an ATS perspective is the lack of balance between rushing and passing (2015 – 7th in NCAA passing, 113th in rushing) and the fact their defense is probably going to be below-average once again in 2016. The betting public is starting to get wise to the Cowboys prowess against the number (11-14-1 last two seasons) and people love to bet teams that score a lot of points. That often takes the point spread out of value territory.
Want more Oklahoma St football?
Website
http://www.okstate.com/index.aspx?path=football
Forum
http://www.scout.com/college/oklahoma-state/forums/2336-cowboy-corner
https://www.orangepower.com/forum/osu-sports-forum.4/
http://oklahomastate.247sports.com/Board/
News
http://www.cowboysrideforfree.com/
http://bleacherreport.com/oklahoma-state-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/oklahoma-st-cowboys
http://www.pistolsfiringblog.com/category/football/
https://twitter.com/CowboyFB (@CowboyFB)