College Football Predictions – Oklahoma St Cowboys 2018 NCAA Football Preview
Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 7-5-1
Mike Gundy led the Pokes to another 10-win season and got them really close to a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game. Losses to TCU and Oklahoma ultimately did them in, but boy were they fun to watch. Oklahoma St has turned into one of the most consistent programs in college football that can win at home (.776 L10Y) and on the road (.725 L10Y).
Can they rattle off another double-digit win campaign?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #7
Oklahoma St Cowboys 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s hard to feel good about losing a QB that threw for almost five THOUSAND (4,904) yards and 37 TDs last year. Mason Rudolph departs as the school’s all-time leader in passing yards and is off to the NFL (Steelers). The job is up for grabs with a few intriguing options in the mix including Hawaii transfer Dru Brown and senior Taylor Cornelius. It remains to be seen what kind of production the Cowboys will get but we DO know that Oklahoma St has a lot of success with their starting QBs. We will be following developments closely during fall camp.
The offense has a great piece to work around in RB Justice Hill who rushed for 1,467 yards and 15 TDs in 2017. The depth behind him is very good. The WR group loses a pair (!) of 1,000 yard receivers including awesome talent James Washington (74-1,549, 13 TDs, 20.9) who was taken in the 2nd round of the NFL draft (Steelers). The good news is that the unit was comically talented last season and they can still rely on a pair of those men (Jalen McCleskey, Dillon Stoner) in 2018.
There is going to be more reliance on the run game and we worry a bit about an offensive line that returns only a pair of starters and loses two 1st Team Big 12 honorees.
DEFENSE
Things look pretty good on this side of the ball despite the loss of their two leading tacklers from last season’s stop unit. Seven starters are back and we are happy to see former Duke DC Jim Knowles added to the coaching staff. Oklahoma St has allowed 29.4, 26.5, 30.5 and 31.2 PPG the past four years and they will need to tighten things up this season given the virtual certainty of decreased offensive production.
The strength of the unit is a defensive line that features experience, size and a 2nd Team Big 12 performer in DE Jordan Brailford (10.5 TFL, 3 QBH LY). There is experience at LB but the pass defense is likely to be down a notch after leading the Big 12 in interceptions in 2017 (17).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game is in good shape with veterans at both PK and P. Matt Ammendola connected on 23/29 FG attempts last season (6/8 from 40+). The return units were poor LY (#108 PR, #112 KR).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s a tough road. They play Boise St (albeit, at home) in week three and have road dates with Kansas St, Oklahoma and TCU. The Cowboys have been really strong away from home recently but they will need to do it this year without Mason Rudolph.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Baylor (November 3). This road contest emerges in a Texas / Oklahoma sandwich, and in fact, is their easiest game on paper in the final five (Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU). Beware of laying a bundle of points.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -135
Under 8 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral view at the moment. Part of us wants to take a small taste of the under, but a potentially smarter part of us remembers that betting on Oklahoma St to have a disappointing season is usually a less-than-optimal strategy. Eight wins feels about right.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Jimmy Johnson was the coach at Oklahoma St from 1979-1983 before he left to dominate at the University of Miami, and then have a somewhat decent career in the NFL.
Mike Gundy is 3rd in head coaching tenure (Kirk Ferentz – Iowa; Gary Patterson – TCU).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the COWBOYS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
The Cowboys are another in a long line of solid Big 12 teams. The question becomes, are they good enough to challenge for the conference title given the loss of so much offensive production? It seems to us that the smart move is to be careful and try and cherry pick the best spots with this squad. The defense should be in the top-half of the conference stats and that can’t hurt.
Mike Gundy rolls along. He is an amazing 73-51-4 (58.9%) vs the point spread over the past ten seasons and long-time readers know he is one of our favorite head coaches. It just feels like a tough ask to bag a winning ATS record this year, especially given how deep the conference is in 2018.
Want more Oklahoma St football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.okstate.com/index.aspx?path=football&
FORUM
Free
http://www.scout.com/college/oklahoma-state/forums/2336-cowboy-corner
https://www.orangepower.com/forum/osu-sports-forum.4/
Restricted
https://oklahomastate.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-corral.28/
NEWS
http://bleacherreport.com/oklahoma-state-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/oklahoma-st-cowboys
http://www.pistolsfiringblog.com/category/football/
https://www.cowboysrideforfree.com/
TWITTER
Hashtags – #GoPokes, #okstate
Accounts to follow