Oklahoma St Cowboys 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 3, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 3-9
“Every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it. So that means that every single day that you see me, that’s on the worst day of my life.”
<Peter Gibbons> <Office Space>
The Pokes got off to a hot 3-0 start, and one of those victories was a very exciting 2-OT win over WOO PIG (W 39-31). Nobody suspected that the win over Arkansas in early September would be the pinnacle of the season, but that’s how it turned out. The Cowboys were an absolute TRAIN WRECK in Big 12 play losing all nine conference games, and the majority of them weren’t even close.
Can Oklahoma St bounce back in 2025?
Oklahoma St Cowboys 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Pokes had their worst offensive performance LY since the NIXON ADMINISTRATION **** (27.2 PPG, #74) as they couldn’t get anything going on the ground (112 YPG, #115), and the QB play was hideous by Oklahoma St standards (59.5%, 21-17 TD to INT, #98 passing efficiency). It’s hard to know what to expect this year as the Cowboys will be without their starting QB, #1 RB, and top-three WRs from last year’s squad. Zane Flores is the leader in the clubhouse when it comes to the battle for the starting QB gig and he missed the 2024 season due to injury. HC Mike Gundy is a proven QB WHISPERER so it’ll be interesting to see how things go. The Pokes will likely try and replace star RB Ollie Gordon with a committee of guys with the most intriguing options being redshirt freshman Rodney Fields and Indiana transfer Trent Howland. The WR room is littered with transfer portal specimens and it’s anyone’s guess who will step up and become meaningful producers. Two guys to keep an eye on include Sam Jackson (Auburn) and Christian Fitzpatrick who did good work with Marshall LY (576, 16.9, 6 TD). The OL is undergoing major reconstruction and as the intrepid Phil Steele points out, Oklahoma St loses over 260 (!!) career FBS starts from the 2024 unit. Needless to say, we don’t have high hopes for the offense in 2025.
**** Fact check – Close enough.
DEFENSE
The defense resembled a THREE POUND STEAMER last year as the Cowboys allowed a ghastly 36 PPG (#126), 501 YPG (#133; only Kent St was worse), and an impossible 215 YPG on the ground (#129). Oklahoma St will (thankfully) be relying upon transfers to upgrade the performance level as there are new faces littered all over the two-deep on the depth chart. The DL has more beef on the inside and we like the addition of DE Kyran Duhon who booked 7 sacks with UTEP in 2024. Bryan McCoy (120 tackles LY, Akron) and Trip White (Ole Miss) are talented pieces to build around in the middle, and the secondary could be the most improved unit on defense. CB Cam Smith (7 PBU) and safety Dylan Smith (#7 tackles) will be supplemented by several Power Four transfers and it’s likely that they’ll hit on at least one of those guys. New DC Todd Grantham has a lot of work to do but we expect mild to moderate improvement this season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game appears to be in good shape with the return of punter Wes Pahl and the addition of ROBOKICKER Gabe Panikowski who was lethal last year with Idaho St (15/15 FG). The Pokes must reload at PR and KR.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Oklahoma St is a MORTAL LOCK to enter Big 12 play at 2-1 (UT Martin, at Oregon, Tulsa) so that’s a good thing. If they don’t get off to a good start in conference play it’s probably gonna be another long season as the final five-game stretch is fairly nasty (at Texas Tech, at Kansas, Kansas St, at UCF, Iowa St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Tulsa (Sept 19)
We don’t expect much from the Golden Hurricane this season but this game is sandwiched between the trip to Oregon and the conference opener with Baylor. On a positive note, the Cowboys get a bye week after the blowout loss to the Ducks, so that might help. Note that Tulsa has covered the last two meetings in Stillwater and this is a little brother/big brother situation with both programs residing in the GREAT STATE of OKLAHOMA.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 3
Over 5.5 +120
Under 5.5 -150
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
Do you believe that the Cowboys can win four Big 12 games? The odds are stacked against them, but HC Mike Gundy has a great track record, yo (see below).
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Prior to the DEBACLE of 2024 the last time that Oklahoma St had a losing record was back in 2005 (!!) when they finished with a mark of 4-7. That was Mike Gundy’s first season in Stillwater.
Oklahoma St is 9-4 ATS (69%) as a home underdog and 25-12 ATS (68%) in non-conference games over the L10Y.
There are several accounts of how Stillwater, Oklahoma got its name, but all of them agree that it has to do with the deep, slowly moving stream, Stillwater Creek, that was a welcome source of life back in the 1800s. Historical trivia BOMBS, bay-bee.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It’s almost never a good idea to bet against Oklahoma St as they’ve been a true model of consistency for a long time. And don’t forget, they made the Big 12 Championship Game in 2023. The offense doesn’t look that imposing on paper and they’ll need a major surprise at the QB position to improve on last year’s numbers. There’s hope for the defense to get better but it’s hard to tell given how many new faces they’ve got on board. It pains us to do it, but we’ll call for five wins and believe that the Cowboys are likely to miss out on a bowl bid in 2025. However, it’s important to note that they’ve proven us wrong before!