Oklahoma vs Texas – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s time for one of the best games of the college football season when Texas and Oklahoma tangle in another edition of the Red River RIVALRY. No, we are not going corporate and calling it the United Airlines Coke Classic Citibank Showdown. It’s a RIVALRY. It’s the SHOOTOUT. <sermon over>
Oklahoma comes into this one with a mark of 5-0 but have had a relatively easy schedule. All of their toughest games still remain on the docket and it starts this week with Texas. The Longhorns had their seemingly annual loss to Maryland but have fought back nicely with four consecutive wins including victories over USC and TCU.
These games are often unpredictable and usually feature yuuuuuge momentum shifts. What can we expect on Saturday?
The Details
Oklahoma -7.5 Texas (61.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Oklahoma -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Oklahoma 34.5 Texas 27
The Match-Up:
Oklahoma offense vs Texas defense
This should be fun.
Sooners’ QB Kyler Murray has been electric so far posting a 17-2 TD to INT ratio while rushing for 4 TDs in his spare time. Murray deserves a lot of credit for being THIS good so soon. Our concern? The Sooners have faced a collection of pretty bad defenses outside of Iowa St. Murray has been devastating when MATRICULATING down the field in the passing game to his two excellent WRs (Marquise Brown, CeeDee Lamb) and that duo has already combined for over 900 receiving yards and 10 (!) TDs in 2018. Oklahoma certainly misses the impact of star RB Rodney Anderson who is lost for the season due to injury as he was explosive in the running and passing games. Trey Sermon is averaging over 5 yards per carry and the RB unit should be fine but maybe a bit less explosive. Texas allowed 34 points in the opening loss to Maryland but have tightened up on defense allowing just 21,14,16 and 14 points in their last four games. This will be their toughest test of the season but they have a history of defending Oklahoma well or at least doing enough to stay in the game. Texas is ranked #29 vs the run and #25 in pass efficiency defense. They also do well on 3rd downs and are #2 in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed (4.84). We wish they got just a bit more PENETRATION but the Horns seem to be capable of holding teams in check with impressive athletes and good coaching. We can see the Sooners creeping into the 30s in this game but find it hard to believe they will blow Texas up.
Texas offense vs Oklahoma defense
Texas QB Sam Ehlinger is not as flashy as his Oklahoma counterpart but he done a really fine job this season posting a 9-2 TD to INT ratio whilst completing 65% of his passes. In fact, amaze your POOL BOY with this gem. Ehlinger has thrown 128 consecutive passes without an interception dating back to the Maryland game. He also does enough on the ground to keep defenses honest and move the chains, and he has a pair of dangerous receivers to utilize in the passing attack. Collin Johnson has quickly moved into MEGALOCKS fav territory as he is a beast and very reliable (24-350, 14.6, 3 TD) and Lil’Jordan Humphrey has also done some serious damage so far in 2018 (26-402, 3 TD). The SURPRISE PACKAGE just might be a healthy Keaontay Ingram at RB who is their most dangerous RB and finally appears to be 100%. Ingram is averaging over 6 yards per carry and caught 5 balls last week vs Kansas St. They are nowhere near as explosive as the Sooners but they are more than capable of winning the rushing battle if they stick with it and they are #22 in TOP. They have the capability to frustrate the Sooners by possessing the football and keeping it away from Murray and company. Overall? We are not convinced that the Oklahoma defense is better than average and that presents a real opportunity for the Longhorns to stay in this game until the end.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Each of the last four games in this series has been decided by a TD or less.
Summary
This has the promise to be a classic. You never know what might happen when the bullets start flying but these teams are pretty evenly matched in our estimation. It’s a heated rivalry game with big implications and we expect the Longhorns to keep this game within a TD and maybe even SHOCK the WORLD. They have good enough players on offense to take advantage of the Sooners’ stop unit and their defense has the ability to get some stops.
Conclusion
Official play: Texas +7.5 -115
Total: No leanage.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.