College Football Predictions – Old Dominion Monarchs 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 5-7
That wasn’t a great way to start.
How does opening the year losing to Liberty by a score of 52-10 sound? Then, following it up shortly thereafter with losses to Charlotte and East Carolina? WHOA NELLIE. Not good. It’s not like they were expected to win the division but expectations were certainly higher than a four-win campaign. At least they were able to SHOCK THE WORLD by beating Virginia Tech 49-35 as four-TD underdogs. That was pretty cool.
It seems like EONS ago when we were watching the Monarchs notch a victory in their first-ever bowl game (2016 Bahamas Bowl; W 24-20 vs Eastern Michigan). Do they have a shot to gain bowl-eligibility in 2019? Let’s dig in, yo.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #7
Conference USA – #11
Old Dominion Monarchs 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Monarchs managed to increase their scoring output by 10 (!) PPG (30.8 LY) but could not find the appropriate balance between the run and the THROW GAME (#10 rushing C-USA, #2 passing). Having said that, they did enough on offense to win more than four games but the defense let them down. More on that below.
One of the more interesting position battles in C-USA will take place amongst the men in the Old Dominion QB room. There are plenty of options to choose from including Steven Williams (81 attempts LY) and JC transfer Messiah deWeaver who was originally signed by Michigan St (!). Stay tuned. You should be warned that our CONFERENCE USA INSIDERS reminded us that the Monarchs lose BOTH of their 1,000-yard WRs this year as well as their #3 option in the THROW GAME. That will put a lot of pressure on the new QB, if there wasn’t enough already. It’s unclear who will claim the #1 RB role and they only bring back a pair of starters on the offensive line. That could be problematic (3.7 YPC, 32 sacks allowed LY).
DEFENSE
Yuck.
The Monarchs allowed 35.9 PPG last year (#13 C-USA), could not stop the run (216 YPG, dead last C-USA), had trouble defending the pass, and couldn’t get enough heat on opposing QBs. That pretty much covers everything. This year they only return five starters and two of their top-seven leading tacklers BUT they do bring in a new DC (David Blackwell) from East Carolina who may be able to turn things around. They also have a small handful of JC transfers that will improve the overall level of depth and talent. We still worry about a DL that failed to provide much pressure on the QB a season ago and loses a third-round NFL draft pick (Oshane Ximines Giants), whilst returning just one starter. The LB and DB units look promising with a pair of returning starters in each group, but the JC infusion needs to take hold (along with improved coaching) if the Monarchs are to make noticeable improvement on defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look to be in decent shape. You know we love ourselves a good kicking game and they bring back a solid PK/P combination in Nick Rice (14/18 FG LY) and Bailey Cate (37-yard net LY). They will need to find new primary return men.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Mainstream folks may disagree but we think it looks TOUGH. They have road dates with Virginia Tech (revenge is a dish best served cold) and Virginia (enjoy) in non-conference play and a devastating four-week stretch that may require BODYBAGS on the sidelines (at Marshall, at UAB, Florida Atlantic, at FIU).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Virginia Tech (September 7)
RUH ROH. We won’t be backing the Monarchs in this spot. The Hokies will be looking for revenge after last season’s DEBACLE and have the horses to take Old Dominion on a trip to BLOWOUT CITY.
Season Win Total
Over 4 +115
Under 4 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
This market looks perfectly lined. Pass.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
When the Monarchs defeated the Hokies last season it marked the first time they had beaten a Power 5 team OR a ranked opponent. BOOM.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
This has the feeling of a reset year in Norfolk. There are a lot of new faces on both sides of the football and the conference doesn’t have many FREE SQUARES to take advantage of on the schedule. We have faith that HC Bobby Wilder can get these guys back to competing for division titles but don’t think it will happen this year.
The Monarchs are a dismal 27-39-1 ATS (41%) since the 2013 season. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY may disagree, but we forecast another losing year vs the point spread. Four of the last five seasons have followed that script.
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WEBSITE
http://www.odusports.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=31100&SPID=127313&SPSID=750425&DB_OEM_ID=31100
FORUM
http://csnbbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=688
http://olddominion.247sports.com/Board/Old-Dominion-Monarchs-Message-Board-Forum-59464
NEWS
https://pilotonline.com/sports/college/old-dominion/football/
http://herosports.com/colleges/teams/old-dominion-mens-football
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/295/old-dominion-monarchs
http://bleacherreport.com/old-dominion-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/old-dominion-monarchs
TWITTER
Hashtag – #AIMHIGH
Accounts to follow
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