Ole Miss Rebels 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 22, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 8-5
The Rebels attacked the soft early part of the schedule with vigor and outscored the opposition 220-19 (!) en route to a 4-0 start, and then came the disaster. Ole Miss found a way to lose to Kentucky at home and then fell to LSU in OT just a few weeks later. They still had an inside track to make the College Football Playoff if they could find a way to beat Florida in late November but the Gators had other ideas. Florida’s win sent Ole Miss to the Gator Bowl where they EVISCERATED Duke (W 52-20) and they ended the year with double-digit wins for the second straight season. That sounds good, but there was no excuse for a team with that kind of talent to miss out on a playoff berth. Oh well, on to 2025.
Ole Miss Rebels 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Rebels moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last season (527 YPG, #2 FBS) behind the performance of superstar QB Jaxson Dart (4,279, 29-6 TD to INT; 495 rush, 3 TD) but unfortunately for Ole Miss, Dart is off to the NFL (1st Round DC, Giants). Backup QB Austin Simmons looked good in his cup of coffee LY and he should eventually thrive under the tutelage of our boy Lane Kiffin, but he’ll be inconsistent in his first season as the starter. The RB room needs to be rebuilt but that might not be a bad thing as the group was underwhelming last year. We anticipate a lot of guys getting some quality reps including Logan Diggs (653, 5.5, 7 TD with LSU, 2023) and former Troy standout Damien Taylor (1,010, 5.8, 7 TD). The WR room lost of pair of stars to the NFL (Harris, Watkins) but once again, the PORTAL KING Lane Kiffin struck gold in THEM THAR HILLS with the addition of several talented specimens including De’Zhaun Stribling (882, 17.0, 6 TD, Okla St) and Harrison Wallace (Penn St). Also note that they still have WR Cayden Lee (874, 15.3, 2 TD) and TE Dae’Quan Wright (394, 14.6, 4 TD) ready to do more damage. The offensive line is our biggest concern on offense and whilst they added some talented newcomers they need to replace four starters from LY’s group.
DEFENSE
The defense played incredibly well LY (14.4 PPG, #2 FBS, Ohio St) and they were a brick wall vs the run (80 YPG, #2) whilst achieving impressive PENETRATION (52 sacks, #3). The Rebels have major restructuring to do as they lose ten of their top-twelve tacklers and need to replace almost everyone from their devastating DL including Walter Nolan (6.5 sacks, 14 TFL, #1 NFL DC, Arizona). They’ve still got some talent up front but they won’t be nearly as nasty as they were in 2024. The LB corps will be the pulse of the stop unit with the return of the outstanding Suntarine Perkins (10.5 sacks, 9 QBH, #4 tackles) and the addition of former Marshall star Jaden Yates who tallied an impossible 120 tackles and 7.5 TFL with the Herd LY. The secondary played well LY (#30 pass efficiency D, 13-12 TD to INT) but they’ll have essentially an entirely new starting group this season and will need the fresh meat to step up. CB Jaylon Braxton (WOO PIG) and safety Wydett Williams (ULM) are two players that should be key contributors.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Rebels finished a very respectable #28 in the Phil Steele special teams rankings LY but they need to replace all the key components including star PK Caden Davis (24/29 FG LY) who’s off to the NFL. Thankfully for the Rebels, the PORTAL KING struck again with the addition of PK Lucas Carneiro who dominated at WKU in 2024 (18/19 FG, 41/41 XP).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not as easy as what they were gifted last year but it’s very manageable. They’ve got a reasonable shot to open at 6-0 (!) if they can find a way to sneak past LSU at home in week five but then things get REAL in a hurry (at Georgia, at Sooners, South Carolina). It’s nice to know they finish with Mississippi St (A) on the off chance they need a win to be considered for the CFP, but then again, anything can happen in the EGG BOWL.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Tulane (Sept 20)
This contest follows a pair of conference MEAT GRINDERS (at Kentucky, WOO PIG) and precedes the yuuuge revenge match with the LSU Tigers. Note that Lane Kiffin is just 12-13-1 ATS as home chalk and Tulane has a shiny new QB with the late addition of Jake Retzlaff (BYU).
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 22
Over 8.5 -120
Under 8.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
That looks about right. The Rebels have question marks on both sides of the football but the schedule sets up nicely. Our best guess is that it all comes down to the Nov 15th game with Florida, and that’s a tossup.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Head coach Lane Kiffin has been solid in the role of home favorite with the Rebels (10-5-1 ATS, 67%) but a disappointment in SEC action (17-22-2 ATS, 44%).
Ole Miss is one of five current SEC members that have never played in an SEC Championship Game (Kentucky, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma). We were hoping for our boy Lane Kiffin to get there last season but he couldn’t GIT-R-DONE.
The Rebels are a sparkling 25-3 (!) at home over the L4Y.
Oxford, Mississippi rates a 9.9 /10 on the RANDOM HOTTIE INDEX as calculated by a consortium of powerful artificial intelligence engines ****.
**** Fact check – You betcha.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Lane Kiffin has done a good job taking the Rebels THIS CLOSE to the top of the SEC but they haven’t been able to join the elite of the conference. We feel very good about the offense but it’s likely that the defense disappoints for a stretch of games at some point during the season. We’ll call for eight or nine wins and hope that they exceed expectations and weasel their way into the College Football Playoff.
HOTTY TODDY!