Orange Bowl – Oklahoma vs Alabama
The Game
It doesn’t get much more compelling than this, baby! Two great programs. A pair of incredibly talented quarterbacks. A legendary head coach. One of the best young coaches in college football. One good defense (LOL).
Oklahoma rolls into this contest with a 12-1 record with the only setback coming at the hands of Texas in their first meeting (3-point defeat). They won the rematch with the Horns and took down the Big 12 (again). ROLL TIDE did ROLL TIDE THINGS pretty much all year until Georgia put a yuuuuge scare into them in the SEC Championship Game. Back-up QB Jalen Hurts came to the rescue and led Alabama to the comeback win. Can the Sooners SHOCK THE WORLD? Let’s dig in.
The Details
Alabama -14 Oklahoma (77)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -13
Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 45.5 Oklahoma 31.5
The Match-Up:
Alabama offense vs Oklahoma defense
ROLL TIDE boasts a luxury of riches on offense. QB Tua Tagovailoa has had a remarkable campaign throwing for 3,353 yards, 68% completions and an impossible 37-4 (!) TD to INT ratio. People like to speculate about what those stats would look like if he got more playing time late in games BUT the other side of the coin is this; How can you assume he would have been able to stay healthy? Nagging injuries have been an issue and it showed in the Georgia game when he struggled (10/25 1 TD 2 INT). Our ORANGE BOWL INSIDERS tell us that he is looking good in practice right now but – again – will he be able to play at a high level for four quarters without re-injuring himself? The good news is that Jalen Hurts is a great leader AND also showed his improved passing skills when leading ROLL TIDE to the comeback win over the Bulldogs.
We are going on the assumption that Tua will be at least 90% ready to go and that is BAD news for a REALLY BAD Oklahoma defense. It’s not as bad as the media will have you believe but there is no doubt that Oklahoma will be hard pressed to stop much of anything that ROLL TIDE wants to do when they have the ball. Alabama is loaded at the RB position and have a PLETHORA of backs that can do damage (31 rushing TDs as a team). The real danger is the elite WR group that is as close to unstoppable as there is in college football. Oklahoma is ranked #129 in passing yards allowed (!) and #105 in pass efficiency D whilst only coming up with 28 sacks and 6 INT (2nd last Big 12) all year. The top three WRs on Alabama (Jeudy, Waddle, Ruggs) have combined for 29 TD receptions and all of them average over 17 yards per grab. Thank goodness they don’t have a good tight end. Oh wait. Irv Smith averages 17 YPC and has talled 7 TDs. One final ominous note. The Sooners are #112 in 3rd down conversion defense. It’s hard to imagine ROLL TIDE not getting to their implied team total of 45.5 ESPECIALLY if Tua plays the majority of snaps and the Sooners score some points forcing Alabama to keep the foot on the gas. <grabs popcorn>
Oklahoma offense vs Alabama defense
Yes, guy.
It’s the ultimate match-up. The most dynamic player in college football AND Heisman Trophy winner going up against the vaunted ROLL TIDE stop unit. Murray’s stats were off the charts (4,053, 71%, 40-7 TD to INT…..892 rushing yards, 11 TDs) and he showed great leadership guiding his team to a Big 12 Championship. Murray has incredible quickness and can run away from all but the fastest defenders. And don’t let his size fool you, dude. He has a cannon for an arm (just kidding. not really) and is deadly accurate. The Sooners have a deep receiving corps and it appears as though they have dodged a bullet. Star WR Marquise Brown (1,318, 17.6, 10 TD) looks to have escaped serious injury and will be ready to go vs ROLL TIDE. Brown can take the top off any defense and hit BIG plays but it remains to be seen how healthy he really is once the live bullets start flying. Oklahoma boasts another star WR in CeeDee Lamb (1,049, 18.4, 10 TD) and depth that poses trouble for any secondary. Running backs Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon have combined for over 1,900 yards and 24 (!) rushing TDs on the season whilst compiling nine 100-yard games. There is obviously a reason why the Sooners are ranked #1 in the FBS in total offense AND scoring offense.
ROLL TIDE has been solid on defense yet AGAIN this year. They are ranked #9 in total defense, #18 vs the run, #14 in pass efficiency defense, #1 in the SEC in sacks (42) and #8 in the FBS in 3rd down defense. The Sooners’ offense line is outstanding and they are about to face their sternest test of the season. They are going to have to be balanced, make ROLL TIDE defend the entire field and have Kyler Murray convert several third downs with his legs. Mobile QBs have given Saban and company trouble in the past and Murray is an “A+” in that regard. <grabs more popcorn>
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Oklahoma is 5-9 SU in their last 14 bowl games and 0-5 (!) in National Title and National Semi-final games since they gave the Seminoles the beating they deserved in the 2000 National Championship Game….ROLL TIDE has not beaten Oklahoma since JOE FREAKING NAMATH was under center…….Sooners are on a 3-0-1 run.
Summary
This is exactly the match-up we were hoping to see. The devastating offensive firepower of Oklahoma vs the ROLL TIDE defense. It should also be noted that Alabama also sports a ridiculously good offense that should be able to score (almost) at will vs the Sooners. Oklahoma is going to have to find a way to force a few turnovers, achieve a key 3rd down stop or two and play an “A” or “A+” game on offense to stay in this contest. Logically it seems that Alabama is the play. How can they not cover -14 if they never punt? Amirite? The huge X Factor is obvious. QB Kyler Murray is an absolute SPECIMEN who can rip you apart with his arms and by extending drives (and scoring TDs) with his legs.
ROLL TIDE has gotten off to slow starts in each of their last three games. They were tied 10-10 with The Citadel at halftime. They only led Auburn 17-14 at the break before blowing them away in the second half. They trailed Georgia 21-14 in the SEC Championship game after two quarters. We think that a prudent approach might be to roll with the Sooners as a first half play if you like them in this contest and go with ROLL TIDE for the full game if you fancy that squad. It’s a foregone conclusion that eventually the dam will burst and Bama will score a bundle once the Sooners get worn down.
We liked the under when the total was in the 80s but are taking a pass for now in the 76.5/77 range as we go to press.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Side: Lean to Oklahoma +7.5 FIRST HALF.
Total: No leanage to report.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.