Oregon Ducks 2016 NCAA Football Preview
OREGON DUCKS
PAC-12 Conference – North Division
2015 Record – 9-4
ATS – 7-6
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
North Division #3
Conference #6
2015 Recap
The Ducks had their first season with more than three losses since 2007 – and as a program – have won almost 80% of their games in the last 10 years. They could not overcome the loss of QB Vernon Adams and generally awful play from their defense. With Adams at the controls – they were exceptional. Without him – disasters like losing 62-20 at home and blowing a 31-0 lead in a bowl game (TCU – tied NCAA record biggest bowl comeback) were a sad reality.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
The battle for the starting QB role will be between FCS transfer Dakota Prukop and freshman Travis Jonsen. MEGALOCKS DEEP INSIDERS advised us that nothing was decided during the Ducks’ spring game where both QBs did enough to keep the completion close. Logic suggests that Prukop will get the opportunity to start given his experience. For the record, Mighty Oregon defeated the Webfoots 21-20 in the spring game.
As always, Oregon has a lethal collection of weapons on offense including 1st team PAC-12 RB Royce Freeman who set a school record with 1,836 rushing yards. WR Darren Carrington had 609 yards averaging 19 a pop. They get TE Pharaoh Brown back as well and he had a fantastic stat line going in 2014 before he got seriously injured in week 10 (25 receptions – 420 yards – 6 TD).
Having said all of this – we have concerns about the offensive line. Only two starters return and the last two seasons combined they have given up 70 sacks. Of course they will be able to run the ball – but considering the inexperience on the OL and that fact they are breaking in a new QB – it is worth questioning if their offense will be as potent as the 2010-2015 versions.
DEFENSE
Oregon is most famous for their high-speed comically-explosive offense. They just need the defense to be good – not great. Last year they had trouble stopping the run and gave up over 300 yards per game in the air. They were bad. Over the past three seasons they have gone from 37th to 87th to 116th in total defense. New DC Brady Hoke (yes, that Brady Hoke) steps in to try and clean things up – but their front 7 is seriously lacking in experience. A ton of tackles and sacks from 2015 will be missing this season. There is experience in the secondary but it is going to be a challenge to make significant improvements in 2016.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Oregon should have fine special teams in 2016. PK Aidan Schneider hit 22-24 last season and was 1st Team PAC-12. Oregon was also 3rd in the conference in net punting – Ian Wheeler is back. The Ducks’ return game should be near the top of the PAC-12 again this season (2015 – 2nd in punt return average, 5th in kickoff return average).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
There is pretty compelling evidence to suggest that Oregon is going to exceed expectations ATS once again in 2016. It is remarkable to think – at least to us – that a team that is so much fun to watch and so popular to support at the betting windows – can have had NINE straight winning seasons against the number. Profitable at home. Ridiculously profitable in true road games (66% last 10 years – for REAL). Are we crazy to think they might let the betting public down in 2016?
Overall, we give the DUCKS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season. There are just too many questions right now for us to think about betting the Ducks on a consistent basis. Quarterback. Defense. Offensive line. We will sit back and wait to see how they start the season before considering the Ducks for a play.
Want more Oregon Ducks Football?
Website
http://www.goducks.com/index.aspx?path=footbal
Forum
http://oregon.247sports.com/Board/
http://www.scout.com/college/oregon/forums/1358-duck-pond
News
http://www.addictedtoquack.com/
http://bleacherreport.com/oregon-ducks-football
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/sports/ducks
https://twitter.com/WinTheDay (@WinTheDay)
https://twitter.com/DuckFootball (@DuckFootball) Rob Moseley