College Football Predictions – Oregon Ducks 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 6-7
Oregon moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last season when QB Justin Herbert was healthy. Not so much when he was sidelined. The Ducks only finished with seven wins but showed some of the explosiveness they had previously become famous for displaying on a weekly basis.
HC Mario Cristobal starts his first full season in Eugene. Can we expect a PAC 12 North title?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
North Division – #3
PAC 12 – #5
Oregon Ducks 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
QB Justin Herbert is the straw that stirs the drink. The Ducks were really potent when he was healthy, as Herbert tallied almost 2,000 yards passing (15-5 TD to INT, 67.5% completions) whilst adding 5 TDs on the ground. You have to believe that the Ducks will be scary on offense this year, but they will have to deal with the loss of the school’s all-time leading rusher Royce Freeman (1,475, 16 TD LY, NFL – Broncos), as well as Kani Benoit (10 TD, 6.6 YPC LY). There is raw talent remaining in the group but it remains to be seen if there is a true #1 back. Four of the top five leading receivers are back from last year’s team including #1 WR Dillon Mitchell and TE Jabob Breeland (17.8 YPC, 5 TD LY). The offensive line has impressive size and returns three starters but will miss the presence of LT Tyrell Crosby (NFL – Lions).
Oregon has averaged 36.0 and 35.4 PPG the past two years after banking 40+ per game for a long time. QB Herbert is a game-changer but we need to see how dangerous the complementary weapons (and OL) perform before calling for season-long domination.
DEFENSE
Good defense follows DC Jim Leavitt wherever he goes. What a coincidence.
The Ducks made impressive strides in 2017 going from 41.4 PPG allowed (ya, that happened) to 29.0. Oregon has seven returning starters including a pair of legit stars in DL Jalen Jelks (15 TFL, 7 PBU, 4 QBH LY) (!) and last year’s leading tackler and 2nd Team PAC 12 honoree Troy Dye (107 tackles, 13.5 TFL). They have experience at every level of the defense but will miss CB Arrion Springs who had a whopping 18 PBU in 2017.
We forecast the Ducks to have their best defensive performance since 2014 when they yielded 23.6 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game is a bit of a mystery as P Adam Stack had just a 34.4 net last season, and it appears he may take over the FG duties as well. KR Tony-Brooks James had a TD last season but he may have limited duty on the return unit given his increased role at RB.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – We really like it. The non-conference slate is LAYUP CITY with Bowling Green, Portland St and San Jose St all coming to Eugene. They get Stanford and Washington at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – None noted.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 -120
Under 8.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. It may be a popular idea, but it seems as though the stars are aligned for the Ducks.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Remember the ALAMO BOWL. MEGALOCKS DIME NICKEL QUARTER CLUB is still smarting after the Ducks blew a 31-0 halftime lead vs TCU in 2015.
Oregon has approximately 195,000 different uniform combinations.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the DUCKS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
There is a saying that goes something like this……Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Last season we had high hopes for Oregon’s prospects vs the point spread only to see them crashing to earth once QB Justin Herbert got injured. What about this year?
The QB will get a lot of the attention, and rightly so, but it is the DEFENSE that has us excited. Keep in mind that when Oregon was a TOUR DE FORCE they had a complete team with a good defense. HC Mario Cristobal is unproven at the big boy level of FBS and there are some holes here and there, but Oregon should be good enough to be an overall money-maker in 2018.
QUACK ATTACK.
Want more Oregon Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.goducks.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
Free
http://oregon.247sports.com/Board/Oregon-Ducks-Message-Board-Forum-Blog-Football-Basketball–45
http://ducksattack.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=5&sid=19916fddb750dd725da7cdd90d7b5a67
NEWS
http://www.addictedtoquack.com/
http://bleacherreport.com/oregon-ducks-football
http://www.statesmanjournal.com/sports/ducks
http://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/
TWITTER
Hashtag – #GoDucks
Accounts to follow
https://twitter.com/oregonfootball