Oregon Ducks 2022 College Football Preview
June 10, 2022
2021 Recap
Record – 10-4
ATS – 4-8
Oh those pesky, Utah Utes.
The Ducks started out on a 9-1 HEEEETER with their only loss coming at the hands of the mighty Stanford Cardinal. To be sure, that was a bit of a puzzler. Utah beat them twice by a combined score of 76-17 late in the year and that included a 38-10 stomping in the PAC 12 title game. They got rolled in the Alamo Bowl by the Sooners and now come into 2022 with a new coaching staff and a new QB under center. They’ve booked double-digit wins in each of the last two full seasons. Can they do it again?
Oregon Ducks 2022 Outlook
OFFENSE
As the gents at the Action Network like to say, Bo Nix season is in FULL EFFECT, but this time, the magic is taking place in Eugene. Nix had his ups and downs at Auburn but won a few big games and possesses the kind of mobility needed in this offense. He booked a 39-16 TD to INT mark in 3Y at Auburn and just needs to do a better job of protecting the football and letting the rushing attack do it’s thing. Losing Travis Dye and CJ Verdell stinks (combined 22 rushing TD LY) but there are some talented specimens in the RB room including Byron Cardwell (417, 6.8) and highly-regarded freshman Jordan James. The OL is a top-10 FBS unit on paper and they boast five returning starters. Note that they paved the way for 5.3 YPC LY (#13 FBS) but it was the first time since 2017 that they exceeded 200 YPG on the ground (202, #24 FBS). The WR group is inexperienced and lacking a bit in size but they have enough raw talent to make things interesting if a legit #1 option emerges. Get that run game going, and things should be just fine.
DEFENSE
The Ducks were mediocre on D last season (#72 total D, #118 3rd downs) and allowed 27.0 PPG (#75). They haven’t managed to hold their opponents to under 25.0 PPG since 2014 (!) but help is on the way. New HC Dan Lanning did a marvelous job with the Georgia defense and has some tools in the toolbox. They have a loaded LB corps led by star LB Noah Sewell (114 tackles, 8.5 TFL) and a good-looking DL bolstered by a few Power 5 transfers. We have concerns about a pass rush that’s booked a TOTAL of 35 sacks over the past two seasons (note – just 7G in 2020 tho) and a secondary that returns just two starters. Oh, and they lose six of their top eight tacklers. Adding Colorado CB Christian Gonzalez doesn’t hurt and as noted earlier, we have a feeling that Lanning’s DEFENSIVE CHOPS will go a long way towards getting this defense turned around.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Ducks lose their primary KR and PR, and also need to find a new punter. PK Camden Lewis hit 13-16 FG LY and was a 2nd team PAC 12 selection. Note that new ST coach Joe Lorig did fine work at Memphis and Penn St.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s mostly good news. Starting out with Georgia (!) isn’t ideal and BYU is always a tough opponent, but they miss USC, and get to play Utah, UCLA, and Washington at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – November 5th – at Colorado
This will be their 3rd road test in four games (there’s a bye in there, tho) and the yuuuge game with Washington is on deck.
Season Win Total
per 5Dimes June 10
Over 8.5 -125
Under 8.5 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
Our number came out at ‘8.5’ based on 109,000 simulations run on our Atari console. If they lose to the Bulldogs in week one they’d need to go 9-2 after that to hit the ‘over’. GUN TO THE HEAD play would be a sprinkle on the ‘over’ but we won’t be hitting this market.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Ducks have won 28 of their last 30 home games.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
Buckle up, yo. This squad has a LOT of potential and the schedule is very favorable. It’s just hard to project how quickly all of the new elements will come together. Having said that, they’re still one of a small handful of legit threats to make the PAC 12 Championship Game.
QUACK ATTACK!
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