Oregon Ducks 2023 College Football Preview
July 16, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 8-5
Year one of the Dan Lanning regime didn’t start well as they got pulverized by the eventual National Champions from Georgia (L 49-3), but to their credit, they subsequently rattled off eight straight wins whilst scoring 40+ points on each occasion. Oregon lost two of their final three games in heartbreaking fashion (combined 7 points) and missed out on playing for a PAC-12 title. The Ducks finished the season on a positive note by edging the Tar Heels in the Holiday Bowl (W 28-27).
Oregon Ducks 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Ducks compiled 200+ yards rushing and 200+ yards passing (216,285) for the 2nd consecutive season and averaged a whopping 39 PPG (#9 FBS). Bo Nix season is in FULL EFFECT for one more year (3,593, 29-7 TD to INT, 14 rush TD! LY) and he’s still got lots of weaponry around him this season. The fantastic 1-2 RB combo of Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington (combined 1,837, 10 TD) guarantees another potent ground attack and Nix gets three of his top-four targets back including #1 WR Troy Franklin (891, 9 TD). The EMBARRASSMENT OF RICHES is overwhelming when you consider that they added one of the Sun Belt’s best WRs in Troy’s Tez Johnson (863, 4 TD) to the mix. Three starters are back on the offensive line but it won’t be easy to replace their outstanding center Alex Forsyth who’s off to the NFL. This is one of the most potent offenses in the nation but it’ll be interesting to see if the remodeled offensive line can perform at LY’s level.
DEFENSE
The defense has been mediocre the L3Y (27, 27, 28 PPG) and will have to stiffen up if the Ducks wanna do special things in 2023. They’ll also need to start achieving better PENETRATION (18 sacks LY, #9 PAC 12). There’s mixed news to report as the Ducks retain eight starters but lose three of their top-four tacklers and their top sack producer in DJ Johnson (6). The DL should be fine as they return three starters and add COCKS transfer Jordan Burch to the group. It’s not gonna be easy to replace NFL-bound Noah Sewell at LB but they hope that the transfer helped fill the void. The strength of the stop unit is on the back end as they look tough despite losing star CB Christian Gonzalez to the first (!) round of the NFL draft. The majority of their key contributors from LY return and they added some talented players from the portal to build excellent depth. This is an “above-average” PAC-12 defense with impressive upside if they do a better job of getting to the QB.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s great to get Camden Lewis back at PK (14-16 FG, 64-64 XP LY) but they need better performance at punter and in the return game.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Oregon will have the pleasure of dismembering Portland St and Hawaii in non-conference play but the trip to Texas Tech might be a wee bit tricky. The Ducks have to face Washington and Utah on the road in a span of three weeks which isn’t ideal, but at least they get to deal with USC in Eugene.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Washington St (Oct 21)
This BAD BOY is sandwiched between the nasty aforementioned road tests vs the Huskies and Utes. Also recall that the Cougars were up by double-digits on the Ducks in the 4th quarter last year before folding like a card table.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 16
Over 9.5 -110
Under 9.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
We doubt we’ll be taking a taste of this market, but we’ve got slight LEANAGE to the ‘over’. The Ducks are very likely to start 5-0, and if that’s the case, they’d need to lose three of their final seven games to put you in the loss column. There are some tough games in there to be sure but we give them a decent shot to GIT ER DONE. It probably makes more sense to back Oregon in the PAC-12 futures market but we’ll save that for another day.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The Ducks are 54-9 at home over the L10Y but just 27-21 in true road games.
Oregon has participated in three of the last five PAC-12 Championship Games. They’ve split with Utah and defeated USC during the 2020 PLANDEMIC season.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It goes without saying that QUACK ATTACK is a major contender in the PAC-12. The offense has the potential to be devastating and we think they’ll do a better job defending the pass this season. That’s yuuuge when you have to face teams like USC and Washington. They’ve got a great shot to reach another PAC-12 title game but they’ll have to beat the Huskies and/or Utah on the road to make it happen. Serious player, yo. Go Ducks!